Sunday, August 3, 2008

Average Prices and Total Sales Volume Plunge in July

After looking at July sales available through Melissa Data, we see Westside Areas continuing their downward move. Melissa Data gives the number of sales for each month and Average Sales Price (ASP). In knowing those two variables we can calculate the Total Sales Volume (TSV). This is extremely important as it demostrates what credit is being extended and gives a good snapshot of activity for each area. With declining property values and credit tightening, transactions are getting more and more difficult. Here are the results for July 08" measured Year over Year.

Unfortunately the "BIGGEST LOSER" for July 08' is West Hollywood

West Hollywood 90048
(TSV) -84.1% (ASP) +.6%

West Los Angeles 90025
(TSV) -66.3% (ASP) -23.0%

Beverly Hills 90210
(TSV) -60.7% (ASP) -62.9%

Santa Monica 90405
(TSV) -52.6% (ASP) -27.3%

Brentwood 90049
(TSV) -47.0% (ASP) +17.3%

Malibu 90265
(TSV) -40.6% (ASP) -25.8%

Venice 90291
(TSV) -36.6% (ASP) +.1%

Mar Vista 90066
(TSV) -32.6% (ASP) -19.6%

Marina del Rey 90292
(TSV) -27.3% (ASP) -24.1%

Culver City 90230
(TSV) -23.8% (ASP) -12.9%

Santa Monica 90402
(TSV) -14.5% (ASP) -14.5%

Santa Monica 90403
(TSV) +17.6% (ASP) -21.6%

Any observations about these latest numbers?


Anonymous said...

Thanks for the data. It's really interesting to compare the numbers like this. I'm looking forward to reading more of your posts!

latesummer2008 said...

Thank you. I think it is important to get out the facts, so others can make informed decisions about real estate. We are in unchartered waters here and need to see the data. There are so many white lies in real estate that factual evidence can help us come to accurate conclusions. Eventually, it would be nice to have people reporting on actual drops of individual properties all over the Westside.

Spread the word!

Scooter said...

While it is hard to find actual Single-family meltdowns in my area (Westwood), it is pretty clear that we are back to early 2005 prices when comparing similar properties. That's roughly 15% off the peak. Median price stats appear to be reflecting the mix of what is selling (all in the lower end) rather than the actual price declines of similar property. Based on a quick look at Westwood, prices seem to be in line with the Case-Shiller high tier for Los Angeles (currently down 20% from peak and down to late 2004 prices), or slightly above that measure.



I went through the MLS and found 15 homes that have sold in Westwood in 2008 that have also sold once before in 2005-2008. Out of the 15 homes, only 1 house sold for less, $20,000 less. A few of those homes were remodeled or flipped so that may negate some of the gains.

But I do agree with you that we may be back to more like 2006 prices for alot of the homes. The more desirable streets and homes are still selling for more however.

latesummer2008 said...

With few sales of SFRs, and volume dropping precipitously, condos are the canary in the coal mine. They are easier to compare and are showing significant declines. Low end properties are taking the brunt of the subprime fiasco, and we are working our way up the Real Estate Food Chain. Alt-A and ARM Loan resets are the next shoes to drop. This will have a dramatic effect on people who bought in the mid range level from 2000 - 2008. Also, with foreclosures taking their toll on the bottom level, there will be fewer sellers to purchase mid level homes. Not to mention, credit crunch, bloated inventory, inflation, unemployment etc.. etc..

Anonymous said...

The volume tells the story. Lets be honest these areas have been sticky in prices but so few have sold. How many people in these areas are listing and canceling because they cant sell. Eventually this shadow inventory will have to clear. Thats when you will see the price drops.

latesummer2009 said...

Yes, shadow inventory is extremely important. The banks are now taking up to 300 days to foreclose on properties, up from 180 days. There hope is all this will blow over and they won't have to show more losses on their books. Nobody in their right mind is buying right now onless thay have to, or getting a "steal". Total Sales Volume (TSV) is definitely most important now.

As volume dries up, prices will become "Unstuck"..

Scooter said...

Scott, Thanks for looking those up. By the way, I check your blog semi-regularly and appreciate the info you put out there.
The other poster was also right about low turnover for SFRs around here. But decent houses priced right seem to sell fairly quickly still despite loan conditions and Jumbo rates where they are. I am still surprised how long it is taking to really impact Westwood.

Anonymous said...

Why don't you post figures for CC 90232?

latesummer2009 said...

90232 statistics for July according to Melissa Data show:
the Total Sales Volume (TSV) is fairly stable. However, the Average Selling Price (ASP) took a hit.

(TSV) -6.9%
(07')$6069K (08')$5656K
(ASP) -18.5%
(07')$867K (08')$707K

Ryan said...

Hello sir,
I publish WeHo News and wish to use your data and a quote from your blog.
Could you please call me at 323.650.2879 so we can talk a little more about your post before I publish tomorrow morning (Thursday, Aug. 14)?
Ryan Gierach, editor

Anonymous said...

Can you please do WeHo condos 90069? Thanks.

latesummer2009 said...

WeHo 90069 Condos are showing weakness according to Dataquick :

(June 2007) Median Sales Price (MSP) $560K
(June 2008) Median Sales Price (MSP) $525K



(June 2007) Number of Sales (NoS) 29
(June 2008) Number of Sales (NoS) 20


Anytime you have both a drop in Median Sales Price (MSP) and the Number of Sales (NoS), it shows contraction in the marketplace.

Also, keep in mind, transactions including Jumbo financing (loan amount over $417,000) makes closing escrow more difficult as the credit crunch progresses.

latesummer2009 said...

122 S. Edinburgh, 90048, 3+2 (SFR) just came in at a sales price of $712,000.

Check out the details in the West Hollywood Meltdowns Post below on this blog.

Anonymous said...

All you folks with Alt A or variable mortgages set to your damn bank now and work out a loan modification....

I did, and locked in my teaser rate as a perm. loan.....Yep, you heard me, the banks are getting pressure from the feds to avoid have anymore foreclosures, so they will do'll be wasn't that hard....I'll keep my Santa Monica house thank you very much...