Tuesday, July 22, 2008

Big Drop in Prices Hitting the Westside

The Westside is definitely cracking under pressure of the Real Estate Meltdown going on here over the last 2 years. As negative equity and foreclosures begin to mount, the highest links of the Los Angeles Real Estate Market Food Chain have started to collapse. In the past Real Estate Crash (1988 - 1991) the high end markets felt the most pain when it was all over. This time will be no different. Taking longer to get started, the coming Alt-A and Prime Mortgage Meltdown will dwarf the Subprime Meltdown over the next couple years. And, 2009 figures to be even more painful than 2008, here on the Westside.

Lets look at some preliminary numbers published by Dataquick for June 2008:


Total Number Sales and Median Prices for Single Family Houses (SFRs)

Brentwood 90049
06/07 (13) Sales ($2499K)
06/08 (7) Sales ($1488K)
(-40.5%)

West Hollywood 90048
06/07 (17) Sales ($1154K)
06/08 (8) Sales ($867K)
(-24.9%)

Santa Monica 90405
06/07 (16) Sales ($1300K)
06/08 (9) Sales ($1000K)
(-23.1%)

Culver City 90230
06/07 (12) Sales ($775K)
06/08 (11) Sales ($665K)
(-14.2%)

Pacific Palisades 90272
06/07 (37) Sales ($1735K)
06/08 (16) Sales ($1630K)
(-9.9%)

Malibu 90265
06/07 (27) Sales ($2238K)
06/07 (4) Sales ($4000K)
(+78.8%, but look at the drop in sales)


Condos Suffering also:

Santa Monica 90405
06/07 (18) Sales ($783K)
06/08 (12) Sales ($468K)
(-40.3%)

Santa Monica 90403
06/07 (12) Sales ($810K)
06/08 (16) Sales ($585K)
(-27.8%)

Westwood 90024
06/07 (33) Sales ($730K)
06/08 (19) Sales ($650K)
(-11.0%)


Perhaps, even more disturbing are the Price per Square Foot (PPSF) paid for SFRs:

Beverly Hills 90210
06/07 PPSF ($1008)
06/08 PPSF ($676)
(-33.0%)

Marina del Rey 90292
06/07 PPSF ($745)
06/08 PPSF ($516)
(-31.8%)

Santa Monica 90402
06/07 PPSF ($1087)
06/08 PPSF ($859)
(-21.0%)

Culver City 90230
06/07 PPSF ($611)
06/08 PPSF ($493)
(-19.4%)

Venice 90291
06/07 PPSF ($873)
06/08 PPSF ($756)
(-13.5%)

Mar Vista 90066
06/07 PPSF ($670)
06/08 PPSF ($583)
(-13.0%)

Rancho Park 90064
06/07 PPSF ($670)
06/08 PPSF ($616)
(-8.8%)

With the credit crisis getting worse in the RE Market every day, it is no longer "IF" or "WHEN" the Westside declines but, "HOW FAST". Please post on any one of these areas mentioned, and specifically of any individual home price declines. Also, if you would like to see all of Dataquicks' numbers, they are linked to the right in my RE Tools Section.

3 comments:

jdr6501 said...

Foreclosures have become the Real Estate Market in California. 41% of resales last month were foreclosure sales. Granted, these were mostly in outlying areas of cities and the Central Valley, but their is an ominous progression towards higher end properties, as the housing crash works its way up the Real Estate Food Chain.

Loans, Loans, Loans...Or the Lack thereof. Credit Crunch is just starting and more affluent areas will be hit hard. Alt-A loans are the next victim, followed by Prime mortgages.

Please post any big drops in your neighborhood here, so we can inform others of recent activity in your marketplace.

Anonymous said...

I am in agreement that the decline is real and that it's not over, but I believe that your numbers here are misleading.

Given the current market (and mortgage market) a disproportionate number of transaction are foreclosures or short sales,and a disproportionate
percentage of these are naturally going to be at the lower end of the market. Therefore a decrease in "median sales price" is probably even more misleading than usual.

latesummer2008 said...

My point exactly, Jumbo size loans are harder to get and that is contributing to the change in sales mix. Unfortunately, foreclosures have become the majority of the market and buyers are getting educated in buying them. When Alt-As begin to reset, the higher end will see more foreclosures and buyers will purchase them at LOWER PRICES. It is all about price. Period. The only reason a property doesn't sell is ALWAYS PRICE.