Tuesday, May 1, 2007

SANTA MONICA MELTDOWNS

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27 comments:

latesummer2008 said...

2314 Pier SM 90405
SFR 2+2, 1396 sq ft (Teardown) SOLD for $920K on 3/23/07, 7000 sq ft LOT

1396/7000 = .199(HF) Housing Factor
.199(HF) x $920K(SP) = $183.1K(Housing Value)
$183.1K/1396 = $131.4(P/SQFToH)

1.0 - .199 = .801(LF) Land Factor
.801(LF) x $920K(SP) = $736.9K(LV) Land Value
$736.9K/7000 = 105.3/sqft(P/SQFToH)


131.4 + 105.3 = 236.7 (HPM)
House Price Multiplier


2338 Pier SM 90405
3+2 (SPANISH), 1333 sq ft, SOLD for $860K on 3/7/07, 7000 sq ft LOT

1333/7000 = .19(HF)
.19 x $860K = $163.4K(HV)
$163.4K/1333 = 122.6/sq ft(P/SQFToH)

1.0 - .19 = .81(LF)
.81 x $860K = $696.6K(LV)
$696.6K/7000 = $99.5/sq ft(P/SQFToL)

122.6 + 99.5 = 223.1(HPM) House Price Multiplier


(HPM)223.1/236.7(HPM)= .945(RBX) Rabindex -5.5%

Anonymous said...

Highlighting the result number would be helpful.

latesummer2008 said...

Ok, this is my area.

Any other observations out there about Santa Monica ?

latesummer2008 said...

Santa Monica starting to hurt:

90404 Home Price per Square foot dropped from $822 / sqft (Last April) to $600 / sqft (This April)

600 / 822 = .729 (RBX) Rabindex (-37.1%)


90405 had trouble across the board:

17 House Sales, Median Price $1300K (March 2007)
to
10 House Sales, Median Price $1100K (April 2007)

17 Condo Sales, Median Price $773K (March 2007)
to
12 Condo Sales, Median Price $635K (April 2007)


In addition, 90405 prices dropped :

House Median Price -12.4%
and
Condo Median Price -6.6%

from last year.....

latesummer2008 said...

724 Navy St, SM 90405
2+1, 854 sqft, SOLD on 12/13/06 for $653K, 1999 sqft LOT

854 / 1999 = .427 (HF)
.427 x $653K = $278.8K (HV)
$278.8K / 854 = $326.5 / sqft (P/SQFToH)

1.0 - .427 = .573 (LF)
.573 x $653K = $374.2K (LV)
$374.2K / 1999 = $187.2 / sqft (P/SQFToL)

326.5 + 187.2 = 513.7 (HPM) House Price Multiplier


713 Ozone Ave., SM 90405
1+1, 600 sqft, SOLD on 5/2/07 for $417K, 1999 sqft LOT

600 / 1999 = .300 (HF)
.300 x $417K = $125.2K (HV)
$125.2K / 600 = $208.6 / sqft (P/SQFToH)

1.0 - .300 = .700 (LF)
.700 x $417K = $291.8K (LV)
$291.8K / 1999 = $146.0 / sqft (P/SQFToL)

208.6 + 146.0 = 354.6 (HPM) House Price Multiplier


354.6 / 513.7 = .690 (RBX) Rabindex (-31.0%) in 5 months

latesummer2008 said...

Another CONDO Meltdown (North of Wilshire):

948 16th Street #105
2+2, 844 sqft, SOLD on 10/31/06 for $775K, $918 / sqft


948 16th Street #101
2+2, 1008 sqft, SOLD on 3/9/07 for $745K, 739 / sqft


739 / 918 = .805 (RBX) Rabindex (-19.5%)
in just over 5 months...

latesummer2008 said...

4 more North of Wilshire Condo Meltdowns:

801 Ocean Ave #502
2+2, 1386 sqft, SOLD on 5/24/06 for $1325K, $956 / sqft

801 Ocean Ave #306
2+3, 1774 sqft, SOLD on 8/31/06 for $1100K, $620 / sqft

620 / 956 = .649 (RBX) Rabindex (-35.1%)
in 3 months!



101 Ocean Ave. Unit #E702
2+2, 1388 sqft, SOLD on 1/9/07 for $1785K, $1286 / sqft

101 Ocean Ave. Unit #F402
2+2, 1385 sqft, SOLD on 4/5/07 for $1300K, $938 / sqft

938 / 1286 = .729 (RBX) Rabindex (-27.1%) in 3 months



930 3rd St. #201
2+2, 1549 sqft, SOLD on 3/2/07 for $911K, $588 / sqft

930 3rd St, #206
2+2, 1364 sqft, SOLD on 3/6/07 for $670K, $491 / sqft

491 / 588 = .835 (RBX) Rabindex (-16.5%)
4 days later...



1128 11th St. #208
1+1, 649 sqft, SOLD on 6/5/06 for $535K, $815 / sqft

1128 11th St. #102
2+2, 910 sqft, SOLD on 5/3/07 for $590K, $648 / sqft

648 / 815 = .795 (RBX) Rabindex (-20.5%) in 11 months

latesummer2008 said...

Not so great news for Santa Monica:

According to foreclosure rates obtained by the City Managers Office, through the legal database Westlaw, the current foreclosure rate is double what it was in 2005, when there was 65 foreclosures.
So far this year, there have been 114 foreclosures, compared to 140 in all of last year.

I guess Santa Monica is no longer immune to the mortgage mess.

Westside Bubble said...

Thought you'd be interested in my new post about falling same-address condo prices in 90403. It includes three previous sales at the 948 16th you noted above.

latesummer2008 said...

Last month, according to Melissa Data, the number of sales and average selling prices for 90405 were:

5/06 26 sales @ $1178K

5/07 17 sales @ $1020K


Sales -34.7%

Price -13.4%

latesummer2008 said...

More North of Wilshire Condo Meltdowns:

211 California Ave. # 505
2+2, 1094 sqft, SOLD on 7/25/06 for $1229K, $1123 / sqft

211 California Ave # 504
2+3, 1358 sqft, SOLD on 3/1/07 for $1050K, $773 / sqft


773 / 1123 = .688 (RBX) Rabindex (-31.2%) in 8 months !!! And right next door.. OUCH



1544 12th St #304
1+2, 1410 sqft, SOLD on 10/31/06 for $1389K, $985 / sqft

1544 12th St #102
1+2, 1398 sqft, SOLD on 3/9/07 for $1075K, $769 / sqft


769 / 985 = .780 (RBX) Rabindex (-22.0%)
in just over 5 months!

latesummer2008 said...

More Condo Meltdowns found this week:

1435 26th St #10, 90404
2+3, 1478 sqft, SOLD for $705K on 7/6/06
$477/sqft

1435 26th St #2, 90404
2+3, 1579 sqft, SOLD for $646K on 9/7/06
$409/sqft

409/477 = -14.7% in 2 months...


1380 Princeton #108, 90404
3+2, 1356 sqft, SOLD for $639K on 2/23/07
$471/sqft

1380 Princeton #104, 90404
3+2, 1670 sqft, SOLD for $705K on 5/9/07
$422/sqft

422/471 = -10.5% in 2.5 months...


2311 Schrader Dr #101, 90404
2+3, 1383 sqft, SOLD for $787K on 7/25/06
$569/sqft

2311 Schrader Dr #104, 90404
2+3, 1502 sqft, SOLD for $730K on 12/05/06
$486/sqft

486/569 = -14.6% in 4.5 months...


2000 Washington #2006, 90403
1+1, 584 sqft, SOLD for $630K on 6/30/06
$1080/sqft

2000 Washington #2004, 90403
1+1, 584 sqft, SOLD for $545K on 8/21/06
$933/sqft

933/1080 = -13.7% in less than 2 months....

latesummer2008 said...

According tothe LA Times June 17th Southland Home Sales Report, during the months of January - April 2007, for the zip code 90405:

$/sqft dropped -7.6%
($825 - $763)

latesummer2008 said...

according to the LA Times Southland Home Prices (6/24/07), there's more bad news for:

Santa Monica 90405


$/sqft dropped from:

April $915 / sqft
to
May $795 / sqft

795 / 915 = .869 (RBX) Rabindex -13.1%

latesummer2008 said...

Found another Condo Meltdown:

1534 17th Ave #204, SM 90404
1+2, 1338 sqft, SOLD on 1/5/07 for $1025K, $766/sqft

1534 17th Ave #102, SM 90404
1+2, 1461 sqft, SOLD on 4/27/07 fro $1000K, $684/sqft

684 / 766 = .893 (RBX) Rabindex -10.7% in less than 4 months

latesummer2008 said...

According to Melissa Data, just in, zip code 90404:

(6/2006) 17 Sales, Average Selling Price $769K
(6/2007) 6 Sales, Average Selling Price $757K

Sales -64.7%
Average Selling Price -1.6%

latesummer2008 said...

I saw an interesting house today at 2314 Pier Ave., in Sunset Park. It had sold on 3/28/07 for $920K and was a fixer, 3 houses from Walgrove and adjacent to the SM Airport. Whoever bought it, is trying to Flip it, after 3.5 months and a decent remodel. Same bedroom and bathroom count (2+2), but nicely redone with a new kitchen, bath and a walk in closet. It does have some view also.

Price $1250K

Do you think it will sell, in this market?

latesummer2008 said...

More bad news for Santa Monica according to Dataquick for July. Their Monthly City and County Charts show median prices dropped:

(2006) $1012K
(2007) $858K on 50 sales


-15.56%

latesummer2008 said...

The latest information from Melissa Data shows 90405:

(Sept 2006) 23 sales @ $983K = $22,609K

(Sept 2007) 13 sales @ $1045K = $13,585K


-43.5% in Sales
-40.0% in Total Volume

Pretty dismal for Santa Monica...

latesummer2008 said...

October numbers are in for 90405 from Melissa Data:

Total Sales Volume dropped from:
(2006) $16,830K
(2007) $12,278K

-27.0 %

latesummer2008 said...

SM Condos 90405 in Ocean, Sunset Park took a big hit in October according to The LA Times Re Section on 11/18/07:

SM 90405 14 sales $738K median price (-16.2%)

latesummer2008 said...

SM 90402 is now making the headlines. According to the LA Times Real Estate Section, Home Prices for November are:

SM 90402 13 sales $2350K median price (-23.0%)

latesummer2008 said...

Nice big "THUD" in Sunset Park. After 5 minutes on Zillow, I came up with:

3041 Paula Dr., SM 90405
5br 4ba 3498 sqft, Lot Size 5300 sqft


Sold 2/28/08 for $1170K ($398 / sqft)

Sold 9/24/08 for $1090K


If a 5Br,4Ba 3500 sqft house is going for $1170K in Sunset Park, how much are those small 2 or 3Br houses now? I believe we have have begun 04' pricing and are dropping fast.

Condos are getting hit even worse...

latesummer2008 said...

90403 zip got hammered over the last 3 months:

According to Melissa Data:

(02/08) 3 sales @ $326K = $978K
(01/08) 4 sales @ $545K = $2180K
(12/07) 5 sales @ $1047K = $5235K
Total = $8393K

compared to:

(02/07) 5 sales @ $924K = $4620K
(01/07) 12 sales @ $1370K = $16440K
(12/06) 13 sales @ $858K = $11154K
Total = $32214K


8393 / 32214 = .26 (-74%) in Total Volume

I'd say that's a Major Meltdown..

latesummer2008 said...

Ocean Park 90405 got creamed in the month of March according to Melissa Data:

(March 2007) 21 sales @ 944K = 19.8M
(March 2008) 6 sales @ 935K = 5.6M

5.6/19.8 = .28 (-72%) in Total Sales Volume !!

And to think 2007 was a bad year ??

latesummer2009 said...

2376 Dewey St
3+2 1300 sqft
Sold 11/06 for $1.1 Million
Listed 10/08 for $709.5 Thousand
FORECLOSURE

And so it begins, in Santa Monica

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