Tuesday, May 1, 2007

PACIFIC PALISADES MELTDOWNS

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21 comments:

latesummer2008 said...

15919 Miami Way, LA 90272
SFR, 2+1, 1161 sq ft, $1400K SOLD on 10/6/06

1161/6186 = .188(HF) Housing Factor
.188(HF) x $1400K(SP) = $262.8K(HV) Housing Value
$262.8K/1161 = $226.3/sq ft(P/SQFToH)

1.0 - .188 = .812(LF) Land Factor
.812(LF) x $1400K(SP) = $1136.8K(LV) Land Value
$1136K/6186 = $183.8/sq ft(P/SQFToL)

226.3 + 183.8 = 410.1(HPM) House Price Multiplier


15925 Miami Way LA 90272
SFR 4+3, 2176 sq ft, $1394K SOLD on 11/22/06, 6839 sq ft LOT

2176/6839 = .318(HF)
.318 x $1394K = $443.5K(HV)
$443.5K/2176 = $203.8/sq ft(P/SQFToH)

1.0 - .318 = .682(LF)
.682 x $1394K = $950.7K(LV)
$950.7K/6839 = $139.0/sq ft(P/SQFToL)

203.8 + 139.0 = 342.8(HPM) House Price Multiplier


(HPM)342.8/410.1(HPM) = .836(RBX)Rabindex -16.4% in 1.5 months!

Joe said...

I would caution that in Pacific Palisades lot sizes are squirrely because often large portions of the lot are unusable hillside. Also ocean /canyon views can vary dramatically from lot to lot.

latesummer2008 said...

Yes, mountainous areas are more difficult. HPM and RBX are to be used as a BASELINE, whereas some adjustments maybe necessary in areas where view, lot irregularity, slope, or newer construction has occurred. In addition, the type of building materials needs to be considered.

However, you can get a good idea using the HPM and RBX method to see if, the AMOUNT of PRICE INCREASE is JUSTIFIED.

latesummer2008 said...

Any other observations about Pacific Palisades out there ?

latesummer2008 said...

16736 Calle Arbolada LA 90272
4+4, 3361 sqft, SOLD on 8/8/06 for $2049K, 5131 sqft LOT

3361 / 5131 = .655 (HF)
.655 x $2049K = $1342.1K (HV)
$1342.1K / 3361 = $399.3 / sqft (P/SQFToH)

1.0 - .655 = .345 (LF)
.345 x $2049K = $706.9K (LV)
$706.9K / 5131 = $137.8 / sqft (P/SQFToL)


399.3 + 137.8 = 537.1 (HPM) House Price Multiplier



16736 Calle Arbolada LA 90272
4+4, 3206 sqft, SOLD on 11/9/06 for $1700K, 4992 sqft LOT

3206 / 4992 = .642 (HF)
.642 x $1700K = $1091.8K (HV)
$1091.8K / 3206 = $340.5 / sqft (P/SQFToH)

1.0 - .642 = .358 (LF)
.358 x $1700K = $608.6K (LV)
$608K / 4992 = $121.9 / sqft (P/SQFToL)

340.5 + 121.9 = 462.4 (HPM) House Price Multiplier


(HPM) 462.4 / 537.1 (HPM) = .861 (RBX) Rabindex (-13.9%)
in 3 months

latesummer2008 said...

Another Condo Meltdown :

1637 Michael Ln, LA 90272
3+3, 2017 sqft, SOLD on 5/25/06 for $1200K, $594 / sqft


1675 Michael Ln, LA 90272
3+3, 1857 sqft, SOLD on 7/5/06 for $890K, $479 / sqft


479 / 594 = .806 (RBX) Rabindex (-19.4%) 7 WEEKS later..

latesummer2008 said...

Pacific Palisades 90272 dropped:

House Median Price -9.0%
and
Condo Median Price -17.1%

from last year...

latesummer2008 said...

Last month, according to Melissa Data, the number of sales and the average selling prices were:

5/06 32 sales @ $1670K

5/07 23 sales @ $1734K


Sales -28.1%

Price +3.8%

Anonymous said...

1249 Bienveneda Ave
Bedrooms: 3
Bathrooms: 2.0
Sq ft: 1,673
Lot size: 15,320 sq ft / 0.35 acres

04/12/2007: $1,250,000
08/30/2006: $1,396,000

Down 10%

latesummer2008 said...

Excellent meltdown! Anytime you find sales on the same property it is a great gauge of the market.

1250K / 1396K = .895 (RBX) Rabindex -10.5% in 7.5 months

12 / 7.5 = 1.6
1.6 x (-10.5) = -16.8% per year


Keep those meltdowns coming !

latesummer2008 said...

According to Dataquick, CA County Charts:


Pacific Palisades

(August 2006) $1960K median price
(August 2007) $1762K median price

-10.10%

latesummer2008 said...

According to Melissa Data, Pacific Palisades:

(Sept 2006) 11 sales @ $1897K

(Sept 2007) 20 sales @ $1549K


-18.4% drop in Average Selling Price

latesummer2008 said...

October numbers are in for Pacific Palisades from Melissa Data:

$30,073K Total Sales Volume (2006)
$21,396K Total Sales Volume (2007)

-$8,677 (-28.9%)

latesummer2008 said...

Bad news in October for PP Condos according to the LA Times RE Section 11/18/07:

PP 90272 6 sales $700K median price (-13.3%)

Anonymous said...

15461 albright st.
2267 sq ft. 9000 ft lot
2br, 3 ba
Purchased fall '05 at $2575.0
remodeled for $125.0
Purchased fall '07 for $2405.0

latesummer2008 said...

Excellent meltdown on Albright. That is an 11% drop by my calculations after the remodel expense. That doesn't even include taxes, commission etc.

Also, remember that sale CLOSED in 7/07 and probably was sold sometime between April or May. Well before the first of 2 credit crunches. I would bet it has dropped another 9% at least by now, bringing it closer to 20% off it's peak.

Way to go on finding this one. If more people provide information such as this, buyers and sellers will be better informed about the TRUE market conditions. Keep up the good work!

Real Estate IS the BIG STORY in 2008.....

Anonymous said...

pending meltdown at 958 Embury St.

current owner bought 12/29/06 for $2.5m. Just listed this week for $2750.0. take out 5% commission and they net, at asking, $2,613.
I smell a meltdown!!!!

latesummer2008 said...

It will be interesting to see IF it sells and for what price. Bought in Dec of 06 it could have a "toxic loan". Possible foreclosure candidate...

latesummer2008 said...

Dataquick report for January 08' in Pacific Palisades:

18 houses sold @ $2100K median price (-10.6%) YOY
3 condos sold @ $625K median price (-23.2%) YOY

Anonymous said...

958 Embury dropped listing price to $2650. Can you say "underwater"!

teddy said...

The Highlands area of the Palisades has about 10 homes about or well over 3 million that are just NOT selling. Owners are not reducing the prices enough given the huge gains they are currently sitting on. Something has to give.