Friday, November 29, 2013

Bubbles, Booms and Busts

The latest real estate bubble in California is getting long in the tooth. Not much more room for speculation as values have just about topped. Hot money is already flowing out as cash investors are becoming less and less of the market. Once they leave what will be left? A few homeowners soon to be underwater again. Sound familiar? It's really a shame that all that is left of the housing market is nothing more than Banks, Hedge Funds and Foreign Money playing a casino game. And we can thank Big Ben and the government charades for all this.

This will still end ugly, once all is said and done. The downside risk keeps growing for those entering the market now. Still totally unsustainable. 

Monday, June 3, 2013

Hot Money Heading For The Exits in Real Estate

Ther has been a number of stories lately commenting on how hedge funds, private equity companies and Wall Street are already taking profits and getting out of the real estate game. Sound familiar? The model of buying homes and renting them out a profit appears to be failing. Getting a 3% return after expenses, given vacancies and other unexpected problems isn't very attractive. Any appreciation to be had, has already occurred and the smart money is looking to dump after the pump. This article about the Smart Money Exiting the Real Estate Market by Dr.Housing Bubble tells the inside story of the kind of market we really have.

 It's easy to get lost in all the media hype and talking heads, that is how they make their money. Don't take the bait. In the words of one of the most famous rock bands of all time, The Who, "We don't get fooled again!" 

Tuesday, April 23, 2013

Bubbles Bubbles In The Air, Bubbles, Bubbles Everywhere

Welcome to the New US Economy. Bubble in housing, bubble in bonds, bubble in treasuries and a bubble in the stock market. This is what happens when government and business work hand in hand to manipulate finances in a last ditch effort before an economy collapses. Every ancient empire in history has followed the same path,. What make us any different? Nothing. One precipitous event in any of these markets and you could see major declines.

I'm truly amazed that only 6 years ago, we had a bubble market in housing and people are buying again in fear of being "left out".  According to the government, inflation is mild ( have you been to the grocery store or tried to get gasoline lately?), so interest rates are being kept at record lows and it doesn't appear that the Fed wants to raise them anytime soon. Now that the banks aren't foreclosing (no mark to market), bidding wars have erupted over available inventory which has dropped some 80% over the last year. If you see a house you love, plan to live there and have a guarenteed reliable income stream for the next 10 years, go for it. It is a good time to buy, if you don't mind overpaying.

It saddens me to see Wall Street, who precipitated the financial crisis 5 years ago, is now in the driver seat again behind housing. They are pooling money, converting homes to rentals and hoping to securitze rental income streams. Wash, rinse and repeat, without any reprisal or risk involved. Once again, they are in unchartered territory by jumping into the rental market. If you take into consideration that few good jobs are being created, vacancy factors, maintenance and taxes, they could be in for a big suprise. If they are successful in becoming the new landbarrons, more and more people will be robbed of retirement, which in large has been equity in their homes. Great, now people can work into their seventies and eighties just trying to make ends meet.

Sure the media, government and all those who have purchased in this market will tell you the "recovery" is gaining traction. It's just too bad that the only recovery is on Wall Street and with the banks. They are taking more and more money from Uncle Ben and driving all the markets into bubbles. Unfortunately, the middle class has all but disappeared and the pool of consumers purchasing goods continues shrinking. Our 2 basic needs, food and shelter are getting harder and harder to come by. It's no wonder why close to 50 million Americans are now on food stamps. If it wasn't for food stamps, we would be seeing soup lines longer than in the Great Depression.

Saturday, February 23, 2013

Investors, Artificial Interest Rates And Inventory Skews The Market.

Bubblemania again! Isn't California grand! Not if you are wanting to buy a home at a "real" price. Anything to re inflate the market according to Ben Bernanke. Banks and corporations above all, just like before. And just like before, it will end badly. It is UNSUSTAINABLE. Check out what The RPX Monthly Housing Report has to say. Once again people are getting lulled into the market and it is being manipulated by hedge funds, investor groups, flippers and sub prime loans (FHA). The idea is to rent out all these homes at a profit, or flip them at a later date. The problem is, as prices rise, others wanting to get out of their ball and chain house will flood the market. The investors will be long gone and who is going to pay those outrageous rents to cover the mortgages? God forbid mortgages rates ever rise.

Most good paying jobs are on the decline and the stock market is now teetering on a precipice. Don't be fooled by the cheap government tricks to get you to bite. This ain't over yet folks. Not by a longshot.

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

The Last Westside Housing Bubble Never Completely Popped

Institutional investors, flippers, multiple offers, restricted inventory, tight credit, few first time buyers and a dead move-up market. Not a picture of a health for real estate. Just a reinflated bubble that only deflated half way. Unsustainable in the long run. Here is an article by Barron's Magazine The Great Mania that sums up the true nature of a reinflated housing bubble. Take 5 minutes out of your day to read this. It could save you alot of stress and heartache down the road.

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Must Read Articles

Even though I have not been actively posting, I'm still listing the most current meltdowns across the Westside on a weekly basis. Condos in Brentwood, Westwood, Marina del Rey, Culver City and West Hollywood are getting hit the hardest right now. But, every area on the Westside has some significant declines. For the next month, I am going to post "Must Read Articles" for anyone considering about real estate.

The first one is  Greatest Real Estate Bubble in Modern Day History Has Yet To Really Burst. By Forbes Magazine.

Next is Dont Believe the Near-Term Housing Data by Anthony Randazzo

 In Housing Debt We Trust by Dr. Housing Bubble

5 year outlook for Real Estate, "Fuzzy" 1.5% Annual appreciation at best by Robert Shiller


Monday, April 9, 2012

Rolling Weekly and Monthly Sales for All Areas on The Westside of Los Angeles

Finally here is one spot where you can access ALL areas of The Westside at your fingertips. Courtesy of Redfin, just click on the weekly and monthly links for the area your interested in. You will find either the last week's worth or month's worth of sales transactions for that area. It's a great way to keep updated in different neighborhoods. Hopefully those who have information about these sales will inform others, keeping us abreast of market trends. Just some of the information you can get from this data are:

Sales Histories
Foreclosures
Short Sales
Taxes Paid
Zillow Estimates
Square Footage
Bathroom/Bedroom Counts
and
Lot Size


The areas covered are:


West LA
Malibu
Pacific Palisades
Santa Monica
Brentwood
Bel Air
Beverly Hills
Beverly Hills Post Office
Beverlywood
Westwood
West Hollywood
Cheviot Hills
Rancho Park
Mar Vista
Culver City
Marina del Rey
and Venice


Remember knowledge is power, especially in real estate. All the areas are listed below in separate posts. Start looking, post interesting sales, and become an expert in your own area. Good luck!  

Monday, April 2, 2012

West LA Weekly and Monthly Transactions

Here is a list of West LA weekly and  West LA monthly transactions from Redfin. Post questions about any specific transaction for others in the area.

Malibu Weekly and Monthly Transactions

Here is a list of Malibu weekly and Malibu monthly transactions from Redfin. Post questions about any specific transaction for others in the area.

Pacific Palisades Weekly and Monthly Transactions

Here is a list of Pacific Palisades weekly and Pacific Palisades monthly transactions from Redfin. Post questions about any specific transaction for others in the area.

Brentwood Weekly and Monthly Transactions

Here is a list of Brentwood weekly and Brentwood monthly transactions from Redfin. Post questions about any specific transaction for others in the area.

Bel Air & Westwood Weekly and Monthly Transactions

Here is a list of Bel Air weekly and Bel Air monthly transactions from Redfin. Post questions about any specific transaction for others in the area. And a list of Westwood weekly and Westwood monthly transactions from Redfin. Post questions for others about any specific transactions.

West Hollywood Weekly and Monthly Transactions

Here is a list of West Hollywood weekly and West Hollywood monthly transactions from Redfin. Post questions about any specific transaction for others in the area.

Beverly Hills Post Office Weekly and Monthly Transactions

Here is a list of Beverly Hills Post Office weekly and Beverly Hills Post Office monthly transactions from Redfin. Post questions about any specific transaction for others in the area.

Beverly Hills Weekly and Monthly Transactions

Here is a list of Beverly Hills weekly and Beverly Hills monthly transactions from Redfin. Post questions about any specific transaction for others in the area.

Beverlywood Weekly and MonthlyTransactions

Here is a list of Beverlywood weekly and Beverlywood Monthly transactions. Post questions about any specific transaction for others in the area

Rancho Park, Cheviot Hills Weekly and Monthly Transactions

Here is a list of Rancho Park,Cheviot Hills weekly and Rancho Park, Cheviot Hills Monthly transactions. Post questions about any specific transaction for others in the area.

If you are interested in Weekly & Monthly Sales for Santa Monica, Venice, Marina del Rey, Mar Vista or Culver City, click on the Older Posts Link on the bottom right corner.  

Santa Monica Weekly and Monthly Transactions

Here is a list of Santa Monica weekly and Santa Monica monthly transactions from Redfin. Post questions about any specific transaction for others in the area.

Venice Weekly and Monthly Transactions

Here is a list of Venice weekly and Venice monthly transactions from Redfin. Post questions about any specific transaction for others in the area.

Marina del Rey Weekly and Monthly Transactions

Here is a list of Marina del Rey weekly and Marina del Rey monthly transactions from Redfin. Post questions about any specific transaction for others in the area.

Mar Vista Weekly and Monthly Transactions

Here is a list of Mar Vista weekly and Mar Vista monthly transactions from Redfin. Post questions about any specific transaction for others in the area.

Culver City Weekly and Monthly Transactions

Here is a list of Culver City weekly and Culver City monthly transactions from Redfin. Post questions about any specific transaction for others in the area.