Saturday, February 13, 2010

Double Digit Losses Per Square Foot Over the Last 2 years on The Westside

Finally, we have some Price Per Square Foot Numbers on the Westside, over the the last 2 years. They are for Median Priced Single Family Residences taken over the entire year, from 2007 through 2009. These are the best numbers yet, for averaging out seasonal variations and market mixes, providing you with a better picture of sales value. Also, it's an overall snapshot of your neighborhood and a way to ballpark figure your average house. Let's take a look at the 2009 Price Per Square Foot Numbers and their relative losses, ranked from highest to lowest :

1) West Hollywood 90038 ($370/sqft) -36.6%

2) Malibu 90265 ($734/sqft) -29.7% (2008-2009)

3) Marina del Rey 90292 ($506/sqft) -28.9%

4) West Hollywood 90046 ($525/sqft) -23.6%

5) Pacific Palisades 90272 ($728/sqft) -22.5%

6) Venice 90291 ($712/sqft) -22.4%

7) Beverlywood 90034 ($456/sqft) -21.5%

8) Culver City 90230 ($467/sqft) -20.6%

9) Santa Monica 90405 ($676/sqft) -19.9%

10) West Hollywood 90048 ($574/sqft) -19.6%

11) Santa Monica 90403 ($811/sqft) -19.4% (2008-2009)

12) Santa Monica 90402 ($876/sqft) -19.3%

13) West Hollywood 90069 ($723/sqft) -19.0%

14) Westwood 90024 ($616/sqft) -18.8%

15) Brentwood 90049 ($654/sqft) -17.8%

16) Beverly Hills 90211 ($621/sqft) -17.6%

17) Rancho Park 90064 ($547/sqft) -17.2%

18) Mar Vista 90066 ($531/sqft) -16.2%

19) Bel Air 90077 ($572/sqft) -15.5% (2008-2009)

20) West LA 90025 ($599/sqft) -14.8%


An interesting note is, the entire County of Los Angeles has corrected over 41.3% in Price Per Square Foot since 2007. Many of those places were due to the subprime explosion and inventories cleared, due to bottoming out at 40-50% discounts. The higher end still has huge inventory, when we take into account both shadow and listed properties. In addition, inventories will increase, even more, as NODs become foreclosures and the Alt-A / Prime toxic mortgages blow up over the next 2-3 years. Remember, we are only 2 years into a real estate recession, which historically on average takes 7 years to cycle through. We could be only half way through our declines on the Westside.

Hats off to Patrick.net and Jas Jain , for digging up the information from Dataquick. You can see more Price Per Square foot data on any city in Southern California at Patrick.Net Feb 12th Losses Per Square Foot Southern California (Jas Jain)

39 comments:

Anonymous said...

Very very useful information thank you. Anyone have any sense why the west hollywood drop is greater than any of the others? has there been a mix shift in w hollywood

Anonymous said...

The spec builders are back North of Montana, bidding aggressively on teardowns.

I am a little surprised - is there financing available for these specs and if so who is providing it?

And in other neighborhoods are the specs getting busy? I assume not

latesummer2009 said...

247 20th Street is a scraper with a great lot. It will see alot of action. I have added pictures on the Santa Monica 90402 blog.

Anonymous said...

How do you know the builders are back?

Jason said...

I think half way through is about right. This is a nice start, but I've seen the termite shacks you can get for $600-700k and I have to laugh. Yeah, whatever, keep going, is what I'd say to any realtor who keeps blabbing about how prices are at their lowest.

Anonymous said...

The builders aren't back in NOM. Those bidding and buying NOM are people with money that have been waiting for things to settle down. With a slight uptick in prices people with lots of cash to put down can get funding on a home that is cheaper than 2 years ago.

The only spec builders in NOM are the ones that never left and have 75% cash to do their builds. Buyers are needing 20-40% cash to buy.

Anonymous said...

"Remember, we are only 2 years into a real estate recession, which historically on average takes 7 years to cycle through."

First, economic recessions typically last 7 years, not real estate recessions. Real estate is only one sector of the overall economy that is recessionary.

You don't see declines, home prices included, for 7 years during a recession. Things fall for a year or two then they level out before going up very slowly. Once the slow upward movement reaches a certain level the economists call the recession over.

Economists can only call the beginning and end to a recession after 2 quarters of positive or negative GDP numbers. Some economists also take into consideration employment numbers. The point is a recession starts 6 months before anyone officially can make the determination that it has started. And a recession ends at least 6 months before you'll hear anyone call it over. In the 1990s we were already recovering for 9 months before it was called over becuase one quarter of GDP kept the economists from officially calling it over.

This is also why waiting for the economists to call a bottom means you have already missed the bottom by half a year or more.

The problem with using the recession to determine the recovery of a particular sector is a sector, such as real estate, could recover before a recession is over. Or a sector could continue to be depressed after a recession ends.

What does all this mean? We are 2.5 years into an economic recession that happens to coincide with the 2.5 years of a depressed real estate sector. In the last 4 recessions sectors such as real estate have leveled off by this point in the recession and start their flat phase.

No one knows where things are going but based on history we have a long road ahead. Also based on history things should begin to level off for a while, as they have done in some zip codes. If I were a betting person I would put my money on entering a flat part of the recession before I would predict further noticeable declines. At least based on historical recessions.

latesummer2009 said...

Anon 4:47 I beg to differ. The last real estate bust started at the end of 1988. I know because I was in the business at that time. Prices did't begin rising until late 1995. It is true that prices will bottom out for a few years. Perhaps, even more this time around since we have had an epic bubble. And yes, it has already bottomed in "some zip codes" but not on the Westside. Compared to losses in other zip codes, tThe Westside has 20-25% more to go. Why take that kind of risk now, when prices will drag along the bottom for 2-3 years?

Anonymous said...

Latesummer, Thanks for the insight

The only market I understand is North of Montana, so help me out with some history.

Teardowns North of Montana were $300,000 in 1983
$900,000 in 1990
$600,000 in 1995

My understanding up to now was that they peaked at $900,000 in 1990

Now you are saying that the last bust started at end of 1988. Does that mean that in your opinion the price of teardowns North of Montana peaked at the end of 1988

If so, how much were they when they peaked.

I guess what I am asking you is, what did a teardown cost at the end of 1988, end of 1989, end of 1990, end of 1991

I am trying to pinpoint the peak of the last North of Montana bubble thanks

Anonymous said...

Latesummer, give us some insight in to price of teardowns 90402 each year of the last boom

Anonymous said...

The bottom has come and gone. There are some bitter sounding people here who either could not afford a house on the westside no matter where we are in the cycle and have probably missed multiple opportunities waiting for the bottom or simply are meant to be a renter.

Anonymous said...

I disagree. My wife and I have been receiving MLS listings and searching for houses for about a year now. Not that we cannot afford to buy right now, we could buy comfortably, however, we are noticing a trend. More and more properties on the westside are showing up. Just recently there has been a flood of new listings along with a lot of price changes. Some of the nicer properties have come and gone at asking price, but more are showing up. Also, we are seeing more short sales being advertised in the MLS. I guess we don't want to buy right now because we believe there is quite a bit of down side left. We rent a place on the beach right now very close to work, so why pay double to live in a inferior place! While it's difficult to time the bottom, but it's not difficult to recognize market fundamentals. We are no where near the bottom. FHA bail out coming soon; Fannie and Freddie needing additional funding; Fed buyback of securities ending; rate hike; commercial real estate implode; massive shadow inventories; Alt-A recast; I can go on and on. What positive trend do you see?

Bubblewatcher said...

Anyone have any sense why the west hollywood drop is greater than any of the others? has there been a mix shift in w hollywood?

In a word, overdevelopment, especially of higher-end condos that are still sitting on the market, in some cases after years. This is particularly prevalent in 90046 and 90038 -- 90069 has a higher perecentage of SFRS, I believe.

Anonymous said...

"FHA bail out coming soon; Fannie and Freddie needing additional funding; Fed buyback of securities ending; rate hike; commercial real estate implode; massive shadow inventories; Alt-A recast; I can go on and on. What positive trend do you see?"

Remember the top of the market headlines: "there is no bubble, etc. " it's the reverse of current headlines. I was selling my properties in Venice at the top to people who were reading the headlines.. Now I see the headlines above and I'm buying. Bottomline is that if you base your
buying and selling on want you read in the news then you
are what is referred to as dumb money. Dumb money waits on the sideline and you said so yourself :" More and more properties on the westside are showing up. Just recently there has been a flood of new listings along with a lot of price changes. Some of the nicer properties have come and gone at asking price, but more are showing up. Also, we are seeing more short sales being advertised in the MLS." duh?! It time to buy! Supply and demand. Lots of supply time to buy. Look at redfin and show the properties recently sold in the last year. There are more blue dots then green dots.....bottomline is that the longer you wait the more you will be priced out.

Anonymous said...

I really like when people are expressing their opinion and thought. So I like the way you are writing

Anonymous said...

If you base your investment decisions on headline then I agree, you will loose most of your money. However, you also must not ignore the obvious. People with money will not be priced out because property prices will not rise for a very long time. People who got exotic loans will be forced out soon enough. Just saying I will be priced out will not entice me to buy right now. Market fundamentals will always prevail. The headlines indicates the amount of artificial support that exist for housing. Like the levees in New Orleans, they cannot hold back to rising tide for ever.

"I was selling my properties in Venice at the top to people who were reading the headlines.. Now I see the headlines above and I'm buying."

I can see that you make your living in this industry and is trying hard to not see the truth. Flipping houses will be much harder now the bubble has popped and will not re-inflate for a decade or more, I suggest you do the smart thing, like my realtor, and go back to school.

Anonymous said...

He/she might also be hopelessly underwater. Look at the statistics on the post, and also look at Redfin. It's all crumbling, and will continue to descend. More than 10% of CA jumbo loans are 90+ days past due. This is just the begininng. Be patient, and it might take until 2013, and you'll get westside properties AT LEAST 25% OFF from current selling prices. I'm guessing when it's all said and done about 40% off given the rent v buy ratios and the current multiple of income ratios.

Anonymous said...

Oh oh. Discount window just got raised by the fed. Soon enough you will hear about the target rate being raised. Hyperinflation on it's way in the next 18-24 months. Better buy some hard assests before your dollars ahem or should I say "paper" becomes even more worthless.

Anonymous said...

Wow, can't believe the scare tactics being used here by ignorant real-estate industry people. Uh, most of us buying here on the Westside are educated, so this won't work. The Discount rate is what banks use to do emergency short term borrowing from the Federal Reserve. It has nothing to do with rates used to calculate your mortgage or borrowing money in general. This is a symbolic move, meant to be a confidence builder for the economy. This is even besides the point. I would love for interest rate to hit 9%. Without inflation, 4% increase in interest rate will blow up current real estate prices. While higher interest rate doesn't necessarily mean lower home prices, this equation is hinged on inflation. If inflation keep up then house prices stay where they are. Since current inflation rate is at around 0%, an increase in interest rate will mean lower home prices. This is all because of income. Something that the real-estate industry people just do not want to look at. I don't know why! Oh, yeah I do. Because current income levels for most Westside areas do not support current prices!

Anonymous said...

Supply and Demand. There are 18 comments on this particular post (I assume everyone here is wanting to buy). There are 17 houses in Santa Monica under a million dollars. I guess the real question is what price are you all waiting for? Santa Monica SFH for 300k? There is no way it will ever get back down there unless you see breadlines. All I see around town are people standing in line for kogi tacos.

Facts and Feelings said...

Don't think SM SFH's will be at
$300K again, but two Dec. 09 sales in the 90403 look like good values (if public records can be trusted):

*814 10th St. 1,276 sqft bungalow on 5,000 sqft. lot for $600k and

*610 California 1,000 sqft cottage, also on 5,000 sqft. lot six blocks from ocean, for $579k.

Not exactly the greatest siting, but such nice prices could leave money for fixing up, living in, and actually claiming a good chunk of your own piece of Santa Monica ground. In the end, it is about the land, isn't it?

But, wait. Perhaps you would rather have nearby 1130 Idaho, also sold last Dec. but for $805K -- a one bedroom fixer of 660 sqft on a 2,100 sqft spit of land.

Once in a while let's talk about bargains with value.

Anonymous said...

Anon 9:25, you're missing the shadow inventory. Go to a foreclosure website, like foreclosurestogo, and you'll see a ton of NODs, preforeclosures, bankruptcies, etc. What do you think these are going to sell for when they finally hit the market? In case you haven't figured it out, incomes can't support "MLS prices". Most of the prices are folks still living in 2007 dreamland. Those of us with cach know better than to throw our down payment away.

And 9:13 has it right. First prices are going to go down becuase of loan resets, etc., then higher interest rates are going to pummel the market (and there are plenty of inflation hedges other than real estate). Finally, prices are going to crater because of demographic shifts. No one who is smart and frugal is going to buy in the current market. Not when you can rent for a fraction of the cost of buying. And yes, many of us could buy but we're not stupid.

Anonymous said...

"Anonymous said...
Anon 9:25, you're missing the shadow inventory. Go to a foreclosure website, like foreclosurestogo, and you'll see a ton of NODs, preforeclosures, bankruptcies, etc. What do you think these are going to sell for when they finally hit the market?"

Depends when and how they come on the market doesnt it. Think of it this way - 99% of all houses in existence will come on the market some time in the next 40 years.

If they all show up this year, prices will be back at like 1975 levels. However, if they show up slowly over the next 40 years, prices will continue a very long slow methodical trend upward.

Same thing with the shadow inventory. If the banks decide F it, and sell it all en masse TSUNAMI style, prices crash.

However, if banks simply continue to drip drip drip it back onto the market like they have been doing for a while now, the price trend of the past year or so will continue.

Anonymous said...

anon 8:46AM
You cannot be more wrong. The base of your argument is essentially gov support will prop up home prices forever. The only reason banks are able to hold on to their inventory of homes is due to TARP. Even with TARP most banks cannot clear their inventories because that would destroy their balance sheet. They are using the new Mark-to-market rule change to survive the current environment. Commercial real-estate and the coming ALT-A and Option ARMS waves will wipe out many of these banks. The homes they are holding will likey be dumped onto the market creating even more inventory. Not to mention that the large banks that survive are not in the real-estate business. They have not desire to hold on to empty homes as they dilapidate and depreciate. The banks are kicking the can down the road for now, but for how long. It's a matter of time before this inventory hit the market. Not in the next 40 years, but rather in the next few years.

Anonymous said...

If you guys look at the home RENTAL prices in an area, you'll get a good measure of what the locals can afford, since you have to pay the rent or you'll be out on the street in a couple of months, not a year or so if you decide to not pay the mortgage.

Since the home OWNERS have to make the mortgage and insurance payments (and hopefully a profit), you can use the standard rental equations to calculate how much house the locals can afford to buy. It's not going to be more than 15x annual rent for a starter home (3/3 1500-2500 sqft). It'll be closer to 10x.

I'm sure the RE agents will chime in about rich parents and Chinese investors and getting priced out... but they're just running scared; in a few years, most of them will be back at their old jobs - flipping burgers or walking the streets.

Anonymous said...

"anon 8:46AM
You cannot be more wrong."

Really? Lets unpack your rebuttal shall we?

"The base of your argument is essentially gov support will prop up home prices forever."

Not forever - just drip drip drip as it has been for the past 14 months and will continue til supply is exhausted. Another 3-5 years by my calculations.

"The only reason banks are able to hold on to their inventory of homes is due to TARP. Even with TARP most banks cannot clear their inventories because that would destroy their balance sheet. They are using the new Mark-to-market rule change to survive the current environment."

Correct, and the MTM rules are set to reverse when? Uhh, err, ahh... The answer of course is MTM rules will be enforced again once there is no need to extend and pretend. Again about 3 - 5 years.

"Commercial real-estate and the coming ALT-A and Option ARMS waves will wipe out many of these banks. The homes they are holding will likey be dumped onto the market creating even more inventory."

Uh NOOOOO - Banks have been going under all the time, do you see any increase in stated inventory? The answer of course is no because the wiped out banks are purchased by other banks who will (thanks to MTM rules) continue to drip drip drip these newly acquired "assets" out like they are doing right now.

"Not to mention that the large banks that survive are not in the real-estate business."

Correct, but again, what choice do they have? They were dumping in Fall 2008 and were on the verge of being taken over before MTM was relaxed. Do you really think they want to relive that - especially since drip drip drip has been working for over a year now.

"They have not desire to hold on to empty homes as they dilapidate and depreciate."

Correct, thats why they take back a house via foreclosure, then rent it to the former owner at something affordable (who helps prevent waste). These homes are then put on the market at a later time via drip drip drip.


"The banks are kicking the can down the road for now, but for how long. It's a matter of time before this inventory hit the market. Not in the next 40 years, but rather in the next few years."

Agree, but its not all at once its a few per month, each and every month for the next few years via drip drip drip. And again, this is not some future event - this is what they are doing RIGHT NOW and have been doing for quite some time.

Let me ask you something - how long are you willing to wait to see your TSUNAMI materialize? Further, how much lower will stated inventory (which has been basically going down each and every month for 18 months) be when your TSUNAMI hits? Give me a date certain so I can come back and mock you when it doesnt happen.

Are you a refugee from the Mr. Mortgage school of delusion? Were you one of those who were waiting with baited breath when he described the TSUNAMI of REO he called "the quickening"

http://bubblemore.blogspot.com/2008/09/quickening-is-coming.html

The TSUNAMI of REO was supposed to begin in earnest in Nov 2008. As its now Feb 2010 and it STILL hasnt happened, its no surprise that Mr. Mortgage has rolled up his site and yanked this video about 3 months ago.

He finally came to the realization that there is no TSUNAMI coming. How much longer are you willing to wait in your state of delusion while REOs keep drip drip dripping out each and every day?

Anonymous said...

How interesting! I would say that I agree with your 3-5 year time frame, however not for working through the housing supply, but rather for continued price decline. Meaning price decline may stop, but there will not be any price increase in the foreseeable futuer. I would say that our current economical situation is similar to those Japan experienced when they had their lost decade. Shall we look at where their housing number are? I would be foolish of me to tell you exactly when the tsunami will hit, because no one can truly time the market, but looking at the ARMS recast schedule, you can get an idea. Gov intervention has delayed the tsunami arrival date, but has not altered it's course.

As far as the banks are concerned, yes, they will try to drip as long as they can and while banking regulation changes might or might not revert the MM rules, one thing we do know is that interest rates will go up. It's a matter of time. Without inflation, we are currently in a deflationary economy, rising interest will mean lower home prices. That's just a fact, like local income levels support local home prices. it is in my opinion this rising interest rate that will pressure banks to unload, maybe not all at once, but certainly at a higher rate. Our gov has thrown the kitchen sink at trying to re-inflate the housing bubble and look what has that done? It has slowed the housing decline. With life support being slowly removed from the housing industry, what do you think that will do to home prices and volumn.

I am not at all suggesting there will be a price collapse but a price decline is more than certain. In fact, I am putting my money where my mouth is and not buying. I will say ALL my friends are going the same. ALL! Maybe that's why you are so fired up, cause you are sitting on depreciating assets with no buyers.

Anonymous said...

"Without inflation, we are currently in a deflationary economy, rising interest will mean lower home prices."

Oldest lie on the books.

http://seattlebubble.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/KC-Home-Price_1950-2009-nominal.png

Back in 1980, you know people were just licking their chops waiting for prices to crater as rates rose from 7 to over 14%. You can Imagine their horror as nominal prices continued to inch higher...

Oh and as for inflation - the most recent results notwithstanding, it looks like inflation started back a few months ago

http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Annual_Inflation/annual_inflation_chart.htm

Perhaps you did not get the memo?

Anonymous said...

Didn't prices in Santa monica go DOWN from 1980 to 1983 as interest rates went up?

Correct me if I am wrong but prices FELL all the way down to 300 thousand in the 90402. Prices hit 300 thousand in the 90402 in 1983 at exactly the time that interest rates were at their peak.

Then from 1983 to 1990 as interest rates went DOWN the price of land in the 90402 went up from 300k to 900k

Again, I have no agenda I just want to clarify the facts

Anonymous said...

"Back in 1980, you know people were just licking their chops waiting for prices to crater as rates rose from 7 to over 14%. You can Imagine their horror as nominal prices continued to inch higher..."

This says NOMINAL price. Meaning not adj for inflation. As I said before, without inflation, rising interest rate means lower prices because of income ratio.

I did get the memo and it says this:

The core CPI, which is more closely watched by economists because it strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 1.6% over the past year. That's the lowest level since September, when prices rose at a rate of 1.5%.

BWT:
In a surprise drop, the core CPI fell 0.1% in the month, the largest decline since December 1982. Analysts had expected a 0.1% increase.

The drop came amid falling prices of housing and shelter, which fell 0.5%. The index for lodging away from home fell the most -- 2.1%, while rent prices were unchanged.

Perhaps you get a different memo than me. A memo that says housing always goes up and never down.

Anonymous said...

"Back in 1980, you know people were just licking their chops waiting for prices to crater as rates rose from 7 to over 14%. You can Imagine their horror as nominal prices continued to inch higher..."

Yeah - I saw that graph when it came out. I no longer have confidence in the concept that higher interest = lower prices.

Still, I guess that is a good thing in that I will likely buy in the next 6 months, and thats one less thing for me to worry about.

Anonymous said...

This is what our fearless leader, Latesummer2009 said waaaaay back in early 2007:

"I may have to change my name to "EarlyWinter 2009. I Say we drag along the bottom for 2 years from 2009 - 2011. Next rally is in summer of 2011."

OH THE IRONY! Props to him in that he called the bottom exactly right years ago.

Of course, as the event came closer and closer on the eventhorizon, it became evident the declines on the westside would be no where near as severe as he predicted.

Thus, at this point, denial kicked in, causing our fearless leader to dig in his heels, claiming now, in early 2010 "We could be only half way through our declines on the Westside."

Its so difficult to see him become less and less relevant as denial takes over. Every move up from hereon out will be "solely" due to govt manipulation or other such nonsense. Its interesting to see what his reaction will be in 2011, 2012, 2013 as he realizes he truly was PRICED OUT FOREVER!!!!

Anonymous said...

Anon @ 8:46 - looks like you are not alone about the "shadow inventory" being a big nothingburger for prices. From Calculated Risk:

John Burns - the same prescient bear who called for major price declines in the LA area back in 2006 now says that there will not be another "wave" of shadow inventory released. It will be dispensed slowly and thus will not see "another leg down" in pricing.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/02/study-mods-just-delay-foreclosures-61.html

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

Housing prices in W. LA will go down - there's no doubt about it. Look at prices from the 1999-2000 era and see what homes in W. LA were going for adjust for minor inflation over the past 10 years and that's basically your price.

Reason I say this is because fundamentals for the area are basically where they were in the 1999-2000 era. Without easy money, there would have been no runup in housing prices.

Compared to other metro centers - SF, NYC, Boston, Seattle - LA's economy has relatively fewer high paying jobs. Most of central LA is service oriented so besides a few people who got lucky as actors or real estate people, there is no corresponding huge wage/business income increase over the entire region's population that would support these price increases. Don't believe me? Over the past 10 years, SF has churned out thousands of tech industry millionaires and almost millionaires, NYC has it's finance millionaires. What industry in LA has had that type of growth? None that I can think of. In fact, the LA economy's main industry is entertainment and portions of the ent. industry have basically evaporated over the last 10 years, for instance the recording industry - still barely hanging on but not minting new rich musicians like they once did before downloading took its toll. Movie industry is also retrenching due to higher production costs. TV industry? More reality shows means fewer actors cashing huge weekly paychecks. Where is the demand for these houses to stay high-priced?

It all comes down to fundamentals and with 12% unemployment in LA, these prices have nowhere to go but down. Some may say unemployment has little to do with the rich - that they are unaffected by high unemployment. They are unaffected for a while but eventually it catches up to them in the form of lowered business revenue, lower stock prices, and higher taxes.

One more thing, once Fed and USG stop buying as many MBS's, mortgage rates will increase despite the prime rate staying low. Anybody who bought in the last 2 years will take an automatic haircut of tens of thousands of dollars because of this. When FHA loans start defaulting at a higher rate than they already are, rates will rise even further resulting in more lost equity. Buy at your own peril

Anonymous said...

February 20, 2010 1:21 PM -- here is the full quote from John Burns -- which adds some important caveats:

"John Burns, chief executive of the consulting firm, said investor demand for foreclosed homes remained strong. Thus, he said, prices were likely to be about level over the next few years, despite the looming foreclosure supply, if the economy continued to recover and mortgage interest rates didn't rise sharply. But if the economy slumped anew and interest rates jumped, he said, 'that's going to cause prices to fall further.'"

Anonymous said...

To those attacking LateSummer's date estimates:

Nobody knew that the bank collapse would happen, that TARP would happen, and that all government forces would be applied to keeping housing prices up. It is really ridiculous to attack LateSummer's prognostications made in advance of such unprecedented, targeted and giganitic interference in the RE market. So, STFU. Thanks.

Latesummer2009 said...

Anon 12:33, My point exactly. Thank you. The govt has done it's very best to keep the RE bubble inflated, throwing in everything and the kitchen sink. It ultimately will be to no avail. Just dragging it out and making it worse.

If things had been left on their own, we probably would have crashed sooner and be working through all this garbage by now.

Those attacking me are scared or probably just real estate Schills...

Anonymous said...

On the other hand, one HAS to be amazed at the number of people who ARE buying at high prices in the face of this falling market. I would call this the "desperate nesting-mode wife effect," but it is still surprisingly, bafflingly, powerful. Can this foolishness be stopped just long enough for prices to get where they are almost certainly going?