Sunday, November 22, 2009

The Santa Monica 90402 Blog is Back!

With prices off 20-30%, I have decided to bring back our sister blog "The 90402". All recent sales from the last 6 months have been posted along with:

1) Bedroom and Bathroom Count
2) House Square Footage
3) Lot Square Footage
4) Closed Escrow Sales Date
5) Closed Sales Price
6) Price per Housing Square Footage

Anyone with additional information about these recent sales are appreciated. In addition, any new sales as they close, will help track current housing trends. You can reach this site at http://www.santamonicameltdownthe90402.blogspot.com/ , or at the link to the right in my Favorite RE/Economic Blog Section.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

HMMM case shiller for LA came in at 167 - but but but - its still technically off -9% YOY.

Say anyone want to play another rousing game where I post the absolute numbers and YOY declines and you tell me which number is the bottom?

Speedingpullett??? LS2009???

Anonymous said...

I'll play your game, Anonymous 1:09PM, once I understand it. I don't yet tho'. Post the numbers and ask the question gain for a challenged sort of numbskull...

Had an interesting experience with a realtor. Looking at an income property that had just had a price knock-off from 889K to 679K, I was told, "We've already had three offers in the $700's, and we expect to have a bidding war going by the middle of the week." Hmmm... We spoke with our realtor, who said we should offer 725K... Whaa? "Why would we ever offer more than asking?" I asked. What's that about? That makes no sense at all. She explained that that's the market right now. Uh-huh.

Industry shills are still pumping the bubble as hard as they can, desperate for that champagne to recarbonate... and I guess some buyers are still scared enough to negotiate against themselves and bid against invisible (possibly fictional) fellow buyers.

That seems like a strong indicator that we're not in the territory of a bottom yet.

-dogwalker

Anonymous said...

OK dogwalker lets play. It has oft been cited here that its not "the bottom" til year over year metrics go positive.

Nope.

Here is a hypothetical house price and its change over time

2008
June 1MM
Jul 990K
Aug 980K
Sep 960K
Oct 940K
Nov 920K
Dec 900K

2009
Jan 880K
Feb 870K
Mar 860K
Apr 850K
May 840K
Jun 832K (-17% YOY)
Jul 820K (-17% YOY)
Aug 810K (-17% YOY)
Sep 800K (-17% YOY)
Oct 790K (-16% YOY)
Nov 780K (-15% YOY)
Dec 770K (-14% YOY)

2010
Jan 750K (-15% YOY)
Feb 740K (-15% YOY)
Mar 730K (-15% YOY)
Apr 720K (-15% YOY)
May 710K (-15% YOY)
Jun 707K (-15% YOY)
Jul 690K (-16% YOY)
Aug 680K (-16% YOY)
Sep 670K (-16% YOY)
Oct 660K (-16% YOY)
Nov 650K (-17% YOY)
Dec 640K (-17% YOY)

2011
Jan 630K (-16% YOY)
Feb 620K (-16% YOY)
Mar 610K (-16% YOY) THE BOTTOM
Apr 620K (-14% YOY)
May 630K (-11% YOY)
Jun 636K (-10% YOY)
Jul 640K (-7% YOY)
Aug 645K (-5% YOY)
Sep 650K (-3% YOY)
Oct 650K (-2% YOY)
Nov 650K (Flat YOY)
Dec 650K (+2% YOY)

2012
Jan 650K (+3% YOY)
Feb 650K (+5% YOY)
Mar 650K (+7% YOY)

So right now you are probably sitting there thinking, this cant be - it must be some realtard (TM) trick - what sort of houdini like wizzardry is going on here". Nope. The fact of the matter is this works with home prices, median prices, case shiller - any series that shows YOY changes. Most often, even when a series says its still YOY negative a bottom has already been reached.

So lets see how you do. Tell me - where was the bottom in the hypo above. Was it when the YOY index went positive or was it when it was still negative (Ill give you a hint, its labeled "the bottom" above:).

What do you guys think, can dogwalker give an honest and direct response? Or will he give some rambling answer about a conversation with a realtor or some other tangent? We shall see.

Anonymous said...

Dogwalker needs to man up

Any income producing (!) property in the 650-725K range is gonna be snapped up.

You don't need to be a brain surgeon to figure that out you dolt.

speedingpullet said...

Yawn....... whatever, anons 7.11 and 9.46.

7.11 - you posted this before, and I still don't understand what you're trying to say. Looks to me like your 'bottom' is sometime around 2011, which is pretty much what is expected.
Again, if you're trying to baffle people with statistics, you need a hypothesis - otherwise ur doin' it wrong.

9.46 am - ad hominem attacks make your legs look fat.
The only 'dolt' here is you!
For wasting time!
Why are you posting here and not participating on a bidding war for a $700K income property!
Where are your priorities!
Oh the humanity!!!

And a very Happy Turkey Day to everyone tomorrow :-)

Anonymous said...

Jeez. Everyone needs to stop classifying the entire westside as one market and speculating/arguing/insulting about what is the bottom.

Understand that there are two "markets" right now:

(1) < ~750 - 900K. Here one is not gambling on the "market" or bottoms, one is gambling on government policy. If FHA/conforming loans stay at $700K+ and rates (i.e. Fed Funds) remain near zero for ages (like Japan), then we may have bottomed over the foreseeable future in this range. On the other hand, if loan limits go down (just imagine back to $400K), banks are forced to hold new loans in this range, and rates begin to rise, a lot of the $800K-ish properties are likely to fall, a lot.

(2) > $1.0M - $3.0M+. This will continue to drop. Banks are not loosening standards, rates cannot go any lower (i.e. Fed funds won't go negative) and lots of shadow inventory remains. This is a true supply-and-demand market. People may want to argue, but I've been looking at specific markets in LA in this range for the last three years. Beyond the micro market anecdotes I have personally experienced (and yes there are always exceptions), just think about the following for the westside high-end: For most jobs (yes, including high-paid professionals) wages are flat to down, Bush tax cuts expire, and there are multiple state and federal tax increases in the works, specifically targeting these folks...and interest rates can only go in one direction. I've found the following to be pretty reliable. Note that the FHA and increasing equity market over the last did nothing for this market. Stats are extracted from Case Shiller.

http://www.firstrepublicbank.com/lend/residential/prestigeindex/losangeles.html

Jason

Anonymous said...

November 25, 2009 7:11 AM

I see your bottom, no problem at all, and your analysis is perfectly clear, tho' I don't see what you're so hot about.

Of COURSE the monthly YOY price changes will do that. And in hindsight, you'll be able to plot a nice little data series showing when it happened.

But that does nothing to describe or explain what's happening now.

November 25, 2009 9:46 AM

What? Do you offer more than the asking price when you shop? It's retarded behavior. Can only happen in an environment where buyers are scared and willing to overbid.

Are you scared?

I'm not.

AND... yes... obviously... I ramble. Maybe it's because I drink too much. My posts are too long. So?

Anonymous said...

Jason,

Good post.

So the 750-900k homes either stay flat for the foreseeable future or go down depending on gov't policy. In other words, no rush to buy in this range as there is no upside from a financial standpoint?

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