Monday, April 6, 2009

More and More Businesses Shutting Down on Montana

It seems like every day there's another commercial venture going out of business on Montana. Could it be the 90402 is feeling the pinch of the recession? Are people now cutting back on unnecessary expenditures? Yes, definitely. The amount of disposable income has declined with the recession and even the affluent are feeling the pain. Prime mortgages defaults have now passed subprime defaults and commercial property is the next shoe to drop. The question is, how many homeowners are now upside down in 90402 and will be unable to refinance, as they owe more than their house is worth? Could we see a load of inventory hitting the market as the 5/1 ARMs sold in 2004 - 2007 begin resetting this month? Yes absolutely.

How will that affect the values for SFRs in 2009?


Anonymous said...

While I agree that there will be many resets, I think that two factors are mitigating that potential driver of defaults/sales. First, the indexes used by most resetting mortgages are at unprecedented lows - the 1 year T-bill and 1 year LIBOR indexes are both so low that most resets are going to be between 4-5%. Second, the refi market allows people with resets to move into something more long term viable.

Anonymous said...

A lot of people won't be able to refi because they have no more equity in their home.

Anonymous said...

"A lot of people"? Well at least you back up your opinion with hard facts. The first poster is correct. ARM resets aren't an issue until the above indexes move significantly higher. Interestingly enough most economists believe rates will fall even lower throughout the year.

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