Tuesday, February 24, 2009

January Brings In Big Price Declines for the Westside

Dataquick has just released the latest Westside sales figures for January (YOY). According to the CA City Chart, the numbers are extremely weak. Double digit declines were everywhere in median price, with Brentwood registering over 67% off.

Here are the areas that suffered the worst:

1) Brentwood 14 sales, $750K median price (-67.5%)
2) Hermosa Beach 4 sales, $717K median price (-51.8%)
3) El Segundo 5 sales, $693.5K median price (-48.6%)
4) Malibu 6 sales, $1668.5K median price (-46.6%)
5) Beverly Hills 5 sales, $1312K median price (-44.03%)
6) Marina del Rey 8 sales, $564K median sales price (-32.8%)
7) Culver City 20 sales, $482.5K median sales price (-25.5%)
8) Playa del Rey 3 sales, $347K median sales price (-22.7%)

Selected Los Angeles Areas

1) Westside 22 sales, $932.5K median price (-52.2%)
2) Beach Cities 41 sales, $744K median price (-30.1%)
3) Palos Verdes Estates 11 sales, $925K median price (-50.1%)

Orange County

1) Laguna Beach 12 sales, $670K median price (-60.0%)

Not only have sales dropped off a cliff, but prices are closing in behind.


Anonymous said...

Is there a way to look at these sales individually? Are these condos or what? The only place I look these up is zillow and they don't update that quickly. Thanks!

Anonymous said...

Encouraging, but the numbers are small, and the data may be skewed. I think what this says is that cheaper homes/condos are selling, but not the more expensive homes. This is probably because 1) wealthier homeowners have more reserve and are marginally less likely to be forced to sell for economic reasons 2) tightened lending and increased spread between conforming/jumbo loans means fewer high end sales vs low end sales. I'm planning on something in the 900-1.05M range, and I can tell you that values are not 30-60% off peak levels in that range. Maybe 10-20% on the Westside, maximum. But, I'm hanging in for late 09, or longer, to get real value. I think we WILL get there. If not, I'm outta here.

Latesummer2009 said...

True, the number of sales are small. But why? That is a big part of the housing problem. Most buyers are now waiting for prices to drop as they have in other areas. Median prices are also skewed because of less expensive homes being easier to finance. Jumbo Loans are harder to get, and are affecting the number of sales at the high-end as well.

But, shrinking sales and prices in tandem indicates, there are more price drops ahead.

Anonymous said...

Late.. do you happen to have an email address? I'd like to ask you a few questions privately.

Latesummer2009 said...

Anon 7:10
If you post your name and email address I will contact you.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
JL said...

There will be more downward pressure on prices if the bill to raise taxes to expand health care passes.

"The tax increases would raise an estimated $318 billion over 10 years by reducing the value of such longstanding deductions as mortgage interest and charitable contributions for people in the highest tax brackets. Households paying income taxes at the 33% and 35% rates can currently claim deductions at those rates. Under the Obama proposal, they could deduct only 28% of the value of those payments.

"The changes would be phased in gradually over the next few years. For the 2009 tax year, the 33% tax bracket starts with couples with taxable earnings of $208,850, when adjusted for personal exemptions and various deductible expenses. A taxpayer in the top bracket paying $1,000 of mortgage interest, for example, would see a tax break worth $350 reduced to $280."

My guess is that many of the homeowners (or potential homeowners) on the westside are in this tax bracket.

Anonymous said...

It depends. If these potential homeowners own small to middle-sized businesses, they might see increased profits without the burden of having to provide healthcare for their employees.
And we're really hoping for the prices to drop further in our household. The current asking price of $899K to 1M for a "fixer" ranch house in Venice is outrageous!

Anonymous said...

I am also looking for prices to fall in Venice but for a different reason - i want to buy a scrap of land and have my dream house built

the great thing about this recession is that plenty of great architects in Venice are unemployed and plenty of great builders are basically sitting around doing nothing

If I go with an architect that has absolutely no work for the next 12 months and a builder that is really hungry and I go for really inexpensive indistrial quality finishes I think I can get a 2500 square foot house built for 650 thousand bucks all in -

The smallest scrap of land in a safe part of Milwood is still over a million dollars -

I just can't imagine paying one million for a piece of land and then spending 650 to build on it

What i need is for the Milwood land to fall in value

does anyone else on this board plan to build very very inexpensively if so let's compare notes

is anyone else on this board looking to buy land in Milwood? if so let's compare notes

I love Venice but don't think i want to consider land not in the Milwood area

Anonymous said...

Good luck getting ANY contruction financing for a new home build....its impossible right now.

And you will have to own the lot outright for a construction loan....no lender wants to be in a 'second' position in this economy.

Anonymous said...

If you are going to spend 1m on a lot, buy in SM....holds its value and you can sell it easier to families looking for schools....

Anonymous said...

ok - what do people think about the cost of construction - is it still coming down

i keep hearing that half the carpenters and electricians in s cal are unemployed and cutting their rates 60%

Latesummer2009 said...

Lats keep the focus on major price declines of closed sales. Anybody see any in their area?

Anonymous said...

Bryn Mawr in SP closed for 1.1m....almost 30% price reduction

Anonymous said...

Haven't seen a huge drop in custom home construction pricing....only for tract homes.

Latesummer2009 said...

Our latest results from our reader poll says, prices on the Westside will drop from peak to trough:

15%-30% - 2/47 or 4%
31%-45% - 2/47 or 4%
46%-60% - 30/47 or 64%
61%-75% - 13/47 or 28%

92% of our readers feel the Westside will drop from 46%-75% from peak pricing (2007), to the the trough (????). That's right in line with late 90s pricing. Right where the stock market is now.

Start checking those 99,98 & 97 real estate prices...

Anonymous said...

Its hard to get a good gauge on prices when there are so few sales, esp. in Santa Monica.