Brentwood , Beverly Hills and Santa Monica Top the List of October Declines.
The Dataquick numbers out for October of 2008 show we are nowhere near a bottom. These numbers compare to the October 2007 numbers, which reflected closings after the first wave of the financial crisis hit in July of 2007. When analyzing Dataquick numbers, we need to look at 2 different charts:
1) CA City Charts - Combination of SFRs and Condos
and
2) LA Times Charts - Seperate numbers for SFRs and Condos
Regardless, we are comparing median prices YOY that help indicate market trends.
CA CITY CHARTS
Brentwood
(-56.1%) $745K
Beverly Hills
(-53.9%) $1,010K
Culver City
(-37.28%) $450K
Selected Areas
Long Beach
(-36.6%) $270K
Westside
(-31.9%) $885K
San Fernando Valley
(-28.1%) $367K
Southbay
(-16.6%) $513K
LA TIMES CHART
SFRs
Santa Monica 90405
(-36.2%) $845K
Pacific Palisades 90272
(-25.8%) $2,000K
Beverlywood 90034
(-24.5%) $600K
Santa Monica 90402
(-21.1%) $2,185K
Mar Vista 90066
(-19.3%) $743K
West Hollywood 90038
(-28.4%) $598K
West Hollywood 90069
(-20.8%) $1,425K
West Hollywood 90046
(-15.4%) $1,075K
West Hollywood 90048
(-14.8%) $1,050K
CONDOs
Brentwood 90049
(-34.5%) $565K
Westwood 90024
(-32.7%) $565K
Santa Monica 90405
(-32.3%) $525K
Culver City 90230
(-21.7%) $364K
Perhaps foreclosures are starting to cause a dent in the median prices now.... November 2008 numbers will be the ones to watch, as they will reflect closings after, the big credit freeze in late September of 2008.
1) CA City Charts - Combination of SFRs and Condos
and
2) LA Times Charts - Seperate numbers for SFRs and Condos
Regardless, we are comparing median prices YOY that help indicate market trends.
CA CITY CHARTS
Brentwood
(-56.1%) $745K
Beverly Hills
(-53.9%) $1,010K
Culver City
(-37.28%) $450K
Selected Areas
Long Beach
(-36.6%) $270K
Westside
(-31.9%) $885K
San Fernando Valley
(-28.1%) $367K
Southbay
(-16.6%) $513K
LA TIMES CHART
SFRs
Santa Monica 90405
(-36.2%) $845K
Pacific Palisades 90272
(-25.8%) $2,000K
Beverlywood 90034
(-24.5%) $600K
Santa Monica 90402
(-21.1%) $2,185K
Mar Vista 90066
(-19.3%) $743K
West Hollywood 90038
(-28.4%) $598K
West Hollywood 90069
(-20.8%) $1,425K
West Hollywood 90046
(-15.4%) $1,075K
West Hollywood 90048
(-14.8%) $1,050K
CONDOs
Brentwood 90049
(-34.5%) $565K
Westwood 90024
(-32.7%) $565K
Santa Monica 90405
(-32.3%) $525K
Culver City 90230
(-21.7%) $364K
Perhaps foreclosures are starting to cause a dent in the median prices now.... November 2008 numbers will be the ones to watch, as they will reflect closings after, the big credit freeze in late September of 2008.
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13 comments:
Your number are still are skewed wrong. PSF is what matters.
90405 in santa monica may be down in sales price for 7 TINY homes but the avg. psf is still very high and has not fluctuated much year over year...in fact its higher than a year ago.
Its $901!!!! That still means that the average size house in 90405 (1600 sq ft) would be around $1,441,600.
Tiny houses sell more per sq ft than large houses. I would be more interested in lot sizes anyhow.
Also, try editing your post next time. Disgruntled Realtor or Homeowner perhaps?
What should I be editing?
The other side of the argument that Santa Monica is NOT going to fall by 80% like you are predicting?
Try previewing your writing before you publish it.
My view is and always has been that, Santa Monica will fall 50-60% from the peak of 2007, before you start to see any appreciation again.
I live in 90405.
Inventory is increasing daily. Sellers are overextended, panic'ed and stressed. Many are in way over their heads.
Why do people have such a hard time understanding that there is a fundamental relationship between income & housing? You can't have $1.5M homes being bought/sold when the average household income is ~$92K (last census info I saw for 90405).
Expect a 50% drop by 2010-2011. We're nowhere near the bottom. Wait for it, wait for it....
You are absolutely right. 90405 is the first zip code to fall in Santa Monica, but certainly, won't be the last. Even 90402 will be hit hard, as bubble financing comes home to roost. The entire world is de-leverageing as a result of too much credit. To think that Santa Monica, (perhaps the epicenter of appreciation) won't be affected is, unrealistic.
I have a strong feeling the posts that support exactly and even sound just like late summer's posts are himself trying to prop him up. They usually have the same writing style and format.
Wrong, I don't need to do that. The facts speak for themselves and I don't need to impress anyone.
Get a life anon 8:43. And, try not posting anonymously.
this blog is focussing on macro changes and on number of sales. It would be MUCH more interesting if it focussed on specific SALES of houses and specific sellers and buyers out there with respect to specific neighborhoods (and how they are behaving, pricing, etc.)
Latesummerof '69
I like your old man's artwork
I feel it is important to understand the big picture in terms of macroeconomics. As we are in unchartered territory here. However, I encourage everyone to share their expertise on the specific areas of:
1)Beverly Hills
2)Brentwood
3)Santa Monica
4)Malibu
5)Pacific Palisades
6)Westwood
7)Bel Air
8)Brentwood
9)Culver City
10)Mar Vista
11)Marina del Rey
12)Beverlywood
13)Rancho Park/WLA
14)West Hollywood
in the individual meltdown sections on this blog. If buyers and sellers contribute, we will have a better forum as to communicate and inform others of what is going on in each market. We can begin by listing current sales in each area, so we can document the marketplace.
And, in regards to my father's artwork. Thank you. He studied under Rico Le Brun, who was an understudy of Picasso. I am fortunate to have many of his pieces.
Latesummer,
I appreciate you blog, and all the data/work put into it. I just noticed something, however, which seriously lowers my opinion of your ability to make sound financial decisons. It makes me wonder, "can I trust this guy's judgement?"
HOW IN THE WORLD DID YOU SELL THAT '72 "FIRECHICKEN!?!?!?!"
I guess even the best of us make mistakes. Happy Turkey (er, Chicken?) Day!
Thanks Again for all you work.
Thanks for the kudos. I do enjoy staying current with the market. And I hope others can be more informed. With the internet, all this information is now public, instead of in the hands of a few.
And, yes, the pontiac sale was a moment of weakness.. I can't even look at a (fire)chicken anymore. Just turkeys. I still drive the same though. Minus a few horses....
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