Saturday, November 22, 2008

Brentwood , Beverly Hills and Santa Monica Top the List of October Declines.


The Dataquick numbers out for October of 2008 show we are nowhere near a bottom. These numbers compare to the October 2007 numbers, which reflected closings after the first wave of the financial crisis hit in July of 2007. When analyzing Dataquick numbers, we need to look at 2 different charts:

1) CA City Charts - Combination of SFRs and Condos
and
2) LA Times Charts - Seperate numbers for SFRs and Condos

Regardless, we are comparing median prices YOY that help indicate market trends.


CA CITY CHARTS

Brentwood
(-56.1%) $745K

Beverly Hills
(-53.9%) $1,010K

Culver City
(-37.28%) $450K

Selected Areas

Long Beach
(-36.6%) $270K

Westside
(-31.9%) $885K

San Fernando Valley
(-28.1%) $367K

Southbay
(-16.6%) $513K


LA TIMES CHART

SFRs

Santa Monica 90405
(-36.2%) $845K

Pacific Palisades 90272
(-25.8%) $2,000K

Beverlywood 90034
(-24.5%) $600K

Santa Monica 90402
(-21.1%) $2,185K

Mar Vista 90066
(-19.3%) $743K

West Hollywood 90038
(-28.4%) $598K

West Hollywood 90069
(-20.8%) $1,425K

West Hollywood 90046
(-15.4%) $1,075K

West Hollywood 90048
(-14.8%) $1,050K


CONDOs

Brentwood 90049
(-34.5%) $565K

Westwood 90024
(-32.7%) $565K

Santa Monica 90405
(-32.3%) $525K

Culver City 90230
(-21.7%) $364K


Perhaps foreclosures are starting to cause a dent in the median prices now.... November 2008 numbers will be the ones to watch, as they will reflect closings after, the big credit freeze in late September of 2008.

13 comments:

Anonymous said...

Your number are still are skewed wrong. PSF is what matters.

90405 in santa monica may be down in sales price for 7 TINY homes but the avg. psf is still very high and has not fluctuated much year over year...in fact its higher than a year ago.

Its $901!!!! That still means that the average size house in 90405 (1600 sq ft) would be around $1,441,600.

latesummer2009 said...

Tiny houses sell more per sq ft than large houses. I would be more interested in lot sizes anyhow.

Also, try editing your post next time. Disgruntled Realtor or Homeowner perhaps?

Anonymous said...

What should I be editing?

The other side of the argument that Santa Monica is NOT going to fall by 80% like you are predicting?

latesummer2009 said...

Try previewing your writing before you publish it.

My view is and always has been that, Santa Monica will fall 50-60% from the peak of 2007, before you start to see any appreciation again.

Dingbat for President said...

I live in 90405.

Inventory is increasing daily. Sellers are overextended, panic'ed and stressed. Many are in way over their heads.

Why do people have such a hard time understanding that there is a fundamental relationship between income & housing? You can't have $1.5M homes being bought/sold when the average household income is ~$92K (last census info I saw for 90405).

Expect a 50% drop by 2010-2011. We're nowhere near the bottom. Wait for it, wait for it....

latesummer2009 said...

You are absolutely right. 90405 is the first zip code to fall in Santa Monica, but certainly, won't be the last. Even 90402 will be hit hard, as bubble financing comes home to roost. The entire world is de-leverageing as a result of too much credit. To think that Santa Monica, (perhaps the epicenter of appreciation) won't be affected is, unrealistic.

Anonymous said...

I have a strong feeling the posts that support exactly and even sound just like late summer's posts are himself trying to prop him up. They usually have the same writing style and format.

latesummer2009 said...

Wrong, I don't need to do that. The facts speak for themselves and I don't need to impress anyone.

Get a life anon 8:43. And, try not posting anonymously.

Anonymous said...

this blog is focussing on macro changes and on number of sales. It would be MUCH more interesting if it focussed on specific SALES of houses and specific sellers and buyers out there with respect to specific neighborhoods (and how they are behaving, pricing, etc.)

Anonymous said...

Latesummerof '69

I like your old man's artwork

latesummer2009 said...

I feel it is important to understand the big picture in terms of macroeconomics. As we are in unchartered territory here. However, I encourage everyone to share their expertise on the specific areas of:

1)Beverly Hills
2)Brentwood
3)Santa Monica
4)Malibu
5)Pacific Palisades
6)Westwood
7)Bel Air
8)Brentwood
9)Culver City
10)Mar Vista
11)Marina del Rey
12)Beverlywood
13)Rancho Park/WLA
14)West Hollywood

in the individual meltdown sections on this blog. If buyers and sellers contribute, we will have a better forum as to communicate and inform others of what is going on in each market. We can begin by listing current sales in each area, so we can document the marketplace.

And, in regards to my father's artwork. Thank you. He studied under Rico Le Brun, who was an understudy of Picasso. I am fortunate to have many of his pieces.

Jeff said...

Latesummer,

I appreciate you blog, and all the data/work put into it. I just noticed something, however, which seriously lowers my opinion of your ability to make sound financial decisons. It makes me wonder, "can I trust this guy's judgement?"

HOW IN THE WORLD DID YOU SELL THAT '72 "FIRECHICKEN!?!?!?!"

I guess even the best of us make mistakes. Happy Turkey (er, Chicken?) Day!

Thanks Again for all you work.

latesummer2009 said...

Thanks for the kudos. I do enjoy staying current with the market. And I hope others can be more informed. With the internet, all this information is now public, instead of in the hands of a few.

And, yes, the pontiac sale was a moment of weakness.. I can't even look at a (fire)chicken anymore. Just turkeys. I still drive the same though. Minus a few horses....