Thursday, October 30, 2008

Brentwood, Westwood, Beverly Hills and Bel Air drop almost 50% in September.

Dataquick numbers out for the month of September show the Westside Area dropped 49.48% measured YOY (Year over Year). The Westside Area here includes Brentwood 90049, Westwood 90024, Bel Air 90077 and Beverly Hills 90212. It is reported on the CA City Charts section of the Dataquick website under "LA Selected Areas". As a YOY measurement, it does show price trends. Keep in mind, October of this year is when the credit markets seized up and the next couple months should reflect that.

Here are the latest numbers:


Westside Area (41) sales (49.48%)

Brentwood (18) sales (-44.86%)
Malibu (15) sales (-39.67%)

Bel Air 90077 (7) sales (-67.8%)
Beverly Hills 90210 (10) sales (-61.4%)
Westwood 90024 (6) sales (-36.6%)
Santa Monica 90402 (11) sales (-35.3%)
Beverlywood 90034 (11) sales (-30.2%)
Mar Vista 90066 (30) sales (-21.0%)
Venice 90292 (15) sales (-14.9%)


San Fernando Valley Areas

Studio City (24) sales (-41.11%)
Calabassas (22) sales (-41.08%)
Studio City (24) sales (-34.97%)

Let's hope there is no actor's strike....

34 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey Late, why were sales down 70% a few months ago and this month down 50%? Was it due to the Summer Selling Season? Also, I don't know if you saw my message on your last post but what do you think of what Mccain said. "I'm going to buy up bad mortgages so your home doesn't lose value and your neighbors home value goes back up". Is he saying that just to win over votes, or is he serious? I could not image bailing out every single homeowner, thats facing foreclosure. Why should the greedy jerks who should have never been in the home in the first place stay in that home. They're part of the reason we're in this mess Plus, like the statement says "make home values go up" does he not understand what a bubble is. Home prices are falling because they're way too expensive, if hardly anyone is buying now who in the hell would buy if the prices went back up. You might as well go backwards and bring out the toxic loans that enabled people to buy at these WTF prices. Its like he wants to go back into the bubble days... Your thoughts?

Anonymous said...

Oh, forgot to mention I saw them talking about something like this on CNBC. T_T

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

Sorry late, the post comment button got jammed.

latesummer2009 said...

With so few sales occurring, median and average selling prices will vary from month to month due to seasonal variations. You really need to pay attention to YOY (Year over Year) prices that measure the same month.

As for the latest schemes to bail out homeowners from McCain/govt etc..., I don't have much faith in any type of rescue. The devil is in the details. First of all, the banks are hoping the govt will solve their problems of bad lending by absorbing losses. And quite frankly, there are too many foreclosures now and too many headed our way to make a difference. As for owners, they probably will just be extending the term of the bad loan or worse, to keep people from defaulting. Nothing more than window dressing, as they bail out big banks who got us into this mess. Kind of like rewarding a bad child for bad behavior (Moral Hazard). INMHO, they need this mess to fail and flush out all the garbage ASAP, so we can rebuild. Even though extremely painful, we are better off using what funds we have left for rebuilding, instead of throwing it down the banks black hole.

Times have changed and speculative house buying is over for a good while. Prices must and will adjust back to fundamentals more inline with incomes and rents.

Anonymous said...

Agreed, like you said the government shouldn't mess with the housing market. All it'll do is delay the inevitable. What Mccain said is a joke, a task that huge would be impossible(just think of how many foreclosures there are in the state and add every single foreclosure in the country to that pile). Too many heh. Also, contrary to many peoples beliefs a lot of areas on the Westside(Santa Monica for example only has a median household income of 80k) aren't "Celeb" areas. In fact they're a small minority scattered about. I find it funny that the media portrays SoCal as land of the celebs perfect every everyone is super rich lalalalalala. When it fact its far from that heh, the medians in the state are high because jobs in CA pay more.

Anonymous said...

Right but what do you think the median income is in 90402?

Anonymous said...

Right but what do you think the median income is in 90402?

latesummer2009 said...

I would imagine the median income still doesn't qualify for the median house price. Prices are dropping there also, due to the fundamentals being out of line. In addition, smart money bails quicker, once the declines are evident. With so few sales, it is not that apparent, yet. Throw in 100% financing with EZ credit and it could be a recipe for disaster.

Tis' the season for Jingle mail, w/o consequences. And, almost fashionable, with the bailout party on Wall Street in full swing.

Anonymous said...

You take the median income, and multiply it by 4 and theres your median home price. So, for an area like Calabasas the median income is about 100k so the median home price will fall down to 400k(between now and 4 years). So for Santa Monica the median home price would fall to around 380k, since the median is 80k.

Anonymous said...

Lmao... Santa Monica homes for 380k??? In your dreams ....or actually in your blog posts.

latesummer2009 said...

4 x $80K would be $320K for a median price home in Santa Monica. That is with the median at $80K. What if the median drops due to a deep recession?

I see Santa Monica starter homes in the $300s, at the bottom...

Anonymous said...

Assuming we have no MAJOR recession, major job losses etc.. Then yeah, of course the median would fall lower. I find half the people who post on real estate blogs to be full of Kool Aide intoxication. Like Mr. Anonymous at 256pm. I actually feel sorry for them, as most of them probably think these WTF prices are normal. Since they probably bought into this game and now they're underwater. Its also hard to believe, like I said above that our state isn't what the media portrays it to be. I guess a lot of these random anonymous posters seem to think that if its a "higher end" area that its automatically a land of celebs and huge mansions. When in reality they're a small minority scattered about.

latesummer2009 said...

True, I call it the "Hollywood Effect" where the media bombards everyone to think, all these rich people are running around everywhere. Where in fact, they are few and far between. Look at your neighbor and you will see everyone cutting back and hunkering down, for what lies ahead.

tbgpalisades said...

Concerning the median income in Santa Monica - don't forget that there are many people in rent controlled flats. This significantly reduces the overall median income stats - coupled with many long time residents.

I think you should look more closely at the median income of **buyers** (after the funny money disappeared). I don't have the stats, but would find it very difficult to believe there are many new buyers coming into the SM market without incomes of [or at least approaching] $200k. I'm not even talking about the household income figure.

Not to pop anyone's enthusiasm for lower home prices, but LA has a lot of earners at that level. Take that number, 4x.

Anonymous said...

The Median currently in SM, is around 800k. Do we have any buyers in that area right now, no. Plus median home price DOESN'T give you how much you get for the money. 800k could only buy you a crappy shack. If you look at home prices in Santa Monica before this WTF bubble took place, you'll see the area can't only support people who make 200k+. How many of the people in these areas are equity rich, probably a lot more than people who actually make 200k. Why are they equity rich, well they bought into this mess with a toxic loan and saw their home value hyperinflate. We could be having people only making 100k living in a home that some realtor is trying to sell for over a million. Most all markets come into line with incomes rents and prices. An exception would be B Hills. The majority of people live in condos or they rent, not 10mill+ estates.

tbgpalisades said...

I'm talking single family homes, leave out the condos - medians there are much lower, as are the associated incomes. That's where I suspect your $800k median comes from.

Also, don't get me wrong, prices **are** falling, and significantly.

Anonymous said...

Thats still an outrageous price for a home. I can't imagine spending well over a million for something that looks like its worth no more than 400k. Especially if you can take that same money, go to a place like Houston Texas. You get a really nice large house in one of the best neighborhoods. Also, why are prices falling well because the toxic loans that enabled this BS are gone they must fall down to a level that people can support. Were home values in SM at levels that could be supported by 200kers before this mess? Nope. Plus how could a first time buyer afford a house, like I said most always incomes rents and home prices come into alignment. I'm talking home values NOT condo values of course. Heres an example: http://www.redfin.com/search#status=1&v=4&lat=34.023157011667415&long=-118.48013158338317&zoomLevel=12&region_id=17882&region_type=6&market=socal

Check out the sales history on that, no one in their right mind is going to fork over that much money for that piece of crap. Especially with it being worth 250k 10 years ago

Anonymous said...

Late, what's your opinion on that WTF price? If you want more check out redfin, they want 2mill for a 2ksqft shack that looks like it would be worth 500k(probably worth 700k imho) . Thats how screwed up SM is.

Anonymous said...

"I can't imagine spending well over a million for something that looks like its worth no more than 400k. Especially if you can take that same money, go to a place like Houston Texas. You get a really nice large house in one of the best neighborhoods."


Please don't ever compare Texas with Santa Monica ever again. That's your first mistake, trying to compare the midwest with Westside Real Estate.

Anonymous said...

I'm sorry, maybe you got caught up in this bubble mania. Maybe you want these prices to stay where they are, well I don't know. For one Houston is not the Midwest. Houston happens to be a very wealthy city, it has a lot of Oil money and it home to the greatest medical center in the world. I'm not exaggerating pull it up yourself and find out. Anyways, the high end areas of that city aren't that much different than West L.A.(minus B Hills). If we never had this idiotic bullshit bubble, our home prices would look similar to their high end areas(a little more expensive though due to the fact its CA). Plus why did the high end areas in our areas get so retardily high? Well people bidded the high end through the rough, because they thought it was immune to all this. Back up your information before criticizing my intellect about market comparisons.

Anonymous said...

Houston is the armpit of Texas and probably the world....they couldn't pay me $1m to live there for one summer.

Get off this blog if you start comparing Texas to So. Calif.. Its like comparing Albertson's to Whole Foods

Anonymous said...

Armpit of Texas...lmao. No but seriously its ludicrous to compare Texas to West LA.

No other evidence or backup needed for that statement, tts self explanatory.

Anonymous said...

Well, anonymous @1:35: you do make it sound as if West LA was some sort of promised land. I think many people would like to disagree. Leaving TX out of the picture, there are many many much more attractive urban areas in this country- not necessarily with the nice climate we have here, but with many other bonuses: decent public transportation, nice parks, etc.- and which did *not* experience the kind of crazy real estate speculation going on here in the last years.

Anonymous said...

you are on the wrong blog...

blt1984 said...

90025 on the Westside is doing great, per DataQuick; most of this year it's been up every month in yoy prices. Any explanation?

Suzi said...

Join the rest of the state Westside!
Have you looked at Riverside and other cities in the Valley?? They are way down also!

http://www.homepricetrend.com

Anonymous said...

This is no surprise. I grew up in LA. Santa Monica Culver Beverly schools. These places are certainly not worth what they are at NOW. .What fools paid such money for some of these ridiculous places outside the finer spots, as for Venice - its still a dump in my view - the idea that Venice is posh is a real joke - all the way to the bank for those who sold at top dollar to these idiots. Now the ones who bought can rot in their 700K dumps looking out onto bums and freaks on the boardwalk. Only in LA I swear. A fool and their money are soon parted. Is anyone really surprised with this fall in sales and prices? Come on people, wake up.

Anonymous said...

And on the issue of "bidding" prices that means ABSOLUTLEY NOTHING. If you go to an auction house people and get in a bidding frenzy, bid up a contemporary piece of garbage sky high and win it - then a year later you want to sell, but their are no buyers - NO BUYERS, remember something is only worth what someone is willing AND ABLE to pay for it. You can't sell, try and go back to the auction house and ask for your money back, or cry to the government that you can't pay for it you know what? They will slam the door in your face, then laugh.

Anonymous said...

And what happened to all these scammers that kept on advising us "And they're not making any more land" ?...

latesummer2009 said...

90025 has had very few sales lately. Only 2 laast month. That tends to skew the data depending on what type of home is sold. Few sales is a bad sign. Prices have to come down, in order to be affordable and increase the number of sales.

Scammers trying to sell inflated houses are now specializing in foreclosure get rich quick schemes.