Tuesday, May 1, 2007

WESTWOOD MELTDOWNS

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26 comments:

latesummer2008 said...

10510 Wellworth LA CA 90024
3+2, 1914 sqft, SOLD on 3/21/07 for $1599K, 5576 sqft LOT

1914 / 5576 = .343 (HF) Housing Factor
.343 x $1599K = $548.5K (HV) Housing Value
$548.5K / 1954 = $286.5 / sqft (P/SQFToH)

1.0 - .343 = .657 (LF) Land Factor
.657 x $1599K = $1050.5K (LV) Land Value
$1050K / 5576 = $188.4 / sqft (P/SQFToL)

286.5 + 188.4 = 474.9 (HPM) House Price Multiplier


10530 Wellworth LA CA 90024
3+2, 2289 sqft, SOLD on 3/27/07 for $1550K, 7971 sqft LOT

2289 / 7971 = .287 (HF)
.287 x $1550K = $444.9K (HV)
$444.9K / 2289 = $194.4 / sqft (P/SQFToH)

1.0 - .287 = .713 (LF)
.713 x $1550K = $1105K (LV)
$1105K / 7971 = $138.6 / sqft (P/SQFToL)

194.4 + 138.6 = 333.0 (HPM) House Price Multiplier


(HPM) 333.0 / 474.9 (HPM) = .701 (RBX) Rabindex (-29.9%)
in 6 days

latesummer2008 said...

More CONDO meltdowns:

10644 Wilkins #201 LA CA 90024
2+3, 1902 sqft, SOLD on 11/30/06 for $875K, $460 / sqft

10644 Wilkins #304 LA CA 90024
2+3, 1930 sqft, SOLD on 3/14/07 for $720K, $373 / sqft

373 / 460 = .811 (RBX) Rabindex (-18.9%) in 3.5 months



1710 Malcolm #305 LA CA 90024
2+2, 1280 sqft, SOLD on 11/7/06 for $649K, $507 / sqft

1710 Malcolm #304 LA CA 90024
2+2, 1276 sqft, SOLD on 3/10/07 for $559K, $438 / sqft

438 / 507 = .863 (RBX) Rabindex (-13.7%) in 4 months

Anonymous said...

latesummer, I've been reading your blog but I was unable to post for some time because my identity is not recognized for some reason, so I'm posting as anon.

Regarding those houses on Wellworth, a couple of months ago it was interesting to see that three houses were for sale next to one another in that block of Wellworth. I now see that 10510 and 10530 Wellworth ended up selling for under 1.6M. However, 10518, which is right between those two, had an asking price of 1.899 million and my best guess is it was pulled out of the market, because it's been a while and it doesn't appear on Zillow as recently sold. So far, in Westwood things seem to be confirming the realtorspeak that you have to "price right" (even if that is still outrageously overpriced). My feeling is there are still people out there who think they are getting a "deal" if they can snap a house at 2005 prices. Prices are proving to be exceedingly sticky, and I can't wait for your "latesummer" to materialize.

Another thing, it seems to me as if realtors and sellers are grasping at straws, because in my area the pricing criteria are all over the place.

1669 Fairburn, 90024, 2,446 sqf, 5,662 lot (no backyard) has an asking price of 1,495 million. The plus of this house is it has 5 bedrooms and a new kitchen, but the bathrooms are outdated and there is the consideration that you can barely put a table in the yard.

10748 Ashton, 90024, 1824 sqf, 7,150 lot (small backyard, but OK for Westwood). This house is a 3 by 2, but in very nice condition and good original construction in a corner lot (something I don't particularly like, but for some people it's a plus). This one has been on the market since October 15 and the asking price is 1,355 million. My thing is, if you are in the market seriously looking for a house in this area, any realtor worth his salt would show you these two houses. As a buyer, wouldn't it seem to you that these houses should have about the same asking price? Just wondering.

Anonymous said...

Sorry, forgot to sign. Cassiopeia

latesummer2008 said...

Cass,

Here are the (HPM) calculations and you can see for yourself:

1669 Fairburn LA 90024
5+2, 2446 sqft, ASKING 1495K, 5662 sqft LOT

2446 / 5662 = .432 (HF)
.432 x $1495K = $645.8K (HV)
$645.8K / 2446 = $264.0 / sqft (P/SQFToH)

1.0 - .432 = .568 (LF)
.568 x $1495K = $849.2K (LV)
$849.2K / 5662 = $149.9 / sqft (P/SQFToL)

264.0 + 149.9 = 413.9 (HPM)House Price Multiplier


10748 Ashton LA 90024
3+2, 1824 sqft, ASKING $1355K, 7150 sqft LOT

1824 / 7150 = .255 (HF)
.255 x $1355K = $345.7K (HV)
$345.7K / 1824 = $189.5 / sqft (P/SQFToH)

1.0 - .255 = .745 (LF)
.745 x $1355K = $1009.3K (LV)
$1009.3K / 7150 = $141.2K / sqft (P/SQFToL)

189.5 + 141.2 = 330.7 (HPM) House Price Multiplier


According to the (HPMs)House Price Multipliers
(330.7 vs 413.9), 10748 Ashton is better priced.

Your absolutely right about considering both properties. However, if 10748 Ashton has sat on the market for 7 months at the same price, it is still too high.

And, 1669 Fairburn, is MORE overpriced......

latesummer2008 said...

Any other observations about Westwood ?

Anonymous said...

Hi, Cassiopeia here again.

10475 Eastborne Ave. #201
2bed/2bath 1657 sqft
Sold on 6/22/06 $725,000

10475 Eastborne Ave. #105
2bed/2bath 1530 sqft
Sold on 2/26/07 $585,000

Even allowing for the difference in square footage and the fact that one is a front unit and the other in the back, to me it looks like some depreciation took place, although I'm not sure.

Good luck, latesummer, the Westside is holding on, but your day of vindication will surely come.

latesummer2008 said...

Nice Meltdown on Eastborne Cass !

Looking at the square footage numbers, we see :

#201 = $437.5 / sqft
#102 = $382.3 / sqft

382.3 / 437.5 = .874 (RBX) Rabindex (-12.6%) in 8 months.

Anonymous said...

I am dying to be able to report a REAL meltdown, something that cannot be attributed to the property being in bad shape, etc. So far, things seem to be holding, and the nicer properties still sell quite fast. However, I am following a couple of houses that have been sitting for a while. One is a nice traditional on a corner lot right around the corner from where I live. I'll keep you posted.

Cassiopeia

latesummer2008 said...

Clean Houses in Decent Areas, that are PRICED RIGHT are selling. Everything else is just sitting. However, other properties that MUST be SOLD are bringing down the comparable sales. Once REOs and Forclosures hit the market, it will decline quickly. Stay tuned.

Keep up the good work Cass..

Anonymous said...

Clean Houses in Decent Areas, that are PRICED RIGHT are selling.

I know, but "right price" now could mean you get a deal if you find a nice 3 bed for 1.2 million in Westwood. That "right price" might change come next year. Gosh, I remember when a pretty and spacious home in Westwood went for 600K. It wasn't so long ago, I'm talking around 1997...
cassiopeia

latesummer2008 said...

Excellent Point! Just because it is priced right NOW, doesn't necessarily make it a good investment. Especially IF, prices are trending downward.

Anonymous said...

This one is a bit south of Westwood. And it's not much of a meltdown but at least it's headed in the right direction.

1887 Greenfield Ave #114, Los Angeles
2 bed / 3 bath / 1,490 sq ft

Sold $700,000 on 07/14/05

Sold $665,000 on 03/15/07

-5% over 20 months

latesummer2008 said...

Very Good Meltdown. Same house price declines are an excellent indicator of a possible trend.

You can find many meltdowns in Westwood by checking Zillow. Here is how to do it:

1) Type in an address in question
2) Click on "map comparables"
2) Click on "Date Sold" to get the most recent sales in order
3) Look at $/sqft column
4) Click on property with low $/sqft
5) Click on "Distance" twice
6) Look for properties close in distance on the same block or in the same building
7) Write down information and perform the (HPM) House Price Multiplier and/or (RBX) Rabindex Calculations
8) Report meltdowns in the specific Area of WestsideREmeltdown

Anonymous said...

I used your Zillow method and found a sweet one. The last sale price is an odd number so the bank probably took it back (like you mentioned b4). But sweet nonetheless... You're doing the Lord's work. Keep it up.

2175 S Beverly Glen #304, LA
2 bed / 2 bath / 1,335 sq ft

Sold for $581,000 on 07/22/05

Sold for $502,939 on 05/10/07

-13% over 20 months.

Anonymous said...

Wow, anon, that's an interesting one. The bank will be glad they sold at the beginning of the bust when all is said and done.
cassiopeia

Anonymous said...

anon said: This one is a bit south of Westwood. And it's not much of a meltdown but at least it's headed in the right direction.
1887 Greenfield Ave #114, Los Angeles

i would say 1887 Greenfield is still in Westwood, not a bit south of it. if you live at 1887 Greenfield, your kids go to Westwood Elementary School, aka Westwood Charter, which is at 2050 Selby. Sorry, but the Westwood Elementary School is in Westwood! I'd even say it's Westwood all the way down to Pico, where then you could say it's Rancho Park, West L.A., what have you. To me, anything with a street address up to 2300 something is still westwood and belongs on this part of the blog.

Anonymous said...

late summer:

comparing units in the same building, i'm all for your comparisons. but comparing houses on the same block based only on lot size and house sq ft is silly. one could be brand new, one could be old. one could be tasteful, one could be tacky. one could have curb appeal, etc etc etc. no matter what the market, in this neighborhood, the same lot and house size could vary in price by as much as $300,000 i'd say based on condition.

latesummer2008 said...

Anon,

Using the Housing Square Footage AND The Land Square Footage to compute value is better than just looking at $/sqft of house as most people do. Most of the VALUE is in the LAND here, on the Westside of LA. Keep in mind, this HPM method is to be used as a baseline, for an Average House on an Average Sized Lot, for a specific area. You can always adjust for condition, building materials, view age, etc. $300K for CONDITION, sounds like a bit much to me.

Calculating HPM gives you a baseline to work from, that INCLUDES the LAND+HOUSE and not just the HOUSE.

latesummer2008 said...

According to Melissa Data, last month, the number of sales and the average selling prices were:

5/06 59 sales @ $798K

5/07 54 sales @ $938K


Sales -8.5%

Price +17.5%

latesummer2008 said...

According to the LA Times Southland Home Prices (6/24/07):

LA/Westwood 90024

7 sales, $1595K median price, -14.1% (YoY)

Anonymous said...

According to LA times Southland Home Prices
7/22/07

LA/Westwood 90024

7 sales $2382 median up 57.9% YtoY.
This is of course not statistically significant as with May numbers.

But no evidence of meltdown on the Westside. Check also the sales are significantly up this year on the Westside compared to last year and the inventory is down in contrast to outlying regions.

Anonymous said...

Who are you people? If you're realtors, I certainly hope I never have any business with you.

latesummer2008 said...

No, not realtors just observant. Market is very sick right now even though SOME houses are selling. # of sales has dropped and inventory is bloated. Only a matter of time, before prices begin their downward slide.

Anonymous said...

What about this one. I know it has to actually sell to qualify as a meltdown, but It's been about five months on the market and it hasn't moved, even with the painful haricut.

MLS 07-205207
10720 Ohio Ave. #13, 90024
aprx. 1700 sq.ft (condo)

Listing price: $839,000
Listing date: 7/23/07
Original listing price: $1,055,00

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