VENICE MELTDOWNS
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Desert Allegory
By Mort Rabinowitz
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Abstract #1
Mort Rabinowitz
16 comments:
2311 Penmar, Venice CA 90291
2+1, 1032 sqft, SOLD on 7/14/16 for $983.5K, 5401 sqft LOT
1032 / 5401 = .191 (HF) Housing Factor
.191 x $983.5K = $187.9K (HV) Housing Value
$983.5K / 1032 = $182.1 / sqft (P / SQFToH)
1.0 - .191 = .809 (LF) Land Factor
.809 x $983.5K = $795.6K (LV) Land Value
$795.6K / 5401 = $147.3 (P / SQFToL)
182.1 + 147.3 = 329.4 (HPM) House Price Multiplier
2312 Penmar, Venice, CA 90291
5+2, 1423 sqft, SOLD on 8/11/06 for $870K, 6229 sqft LOT
1423 / 6229 = .228 (HF)
.228 x $870K = $198.4K (HV)
$198.4K / 1423 = $139.4 / sqft (P / SQFToH)
1.0 - .228 = .772 (LF)
.228 x $870K = $671.6K (LV)
$671.6K / 6229 = $107.8 / sqft (P /SQFToL)
139.4 + 107.8 = 247.2 (HPM) House Price Multiplier
(HPM) 247.2 / 329.4 (HPM) = .751 (RBX) Rabindex (-24.9%)
in 1 month
1067 Marco Pl., Venice 90291
2+1, 795 sqft, SOLD on 12/13/06 for $1250K, 4000 sqft LOT
795 / 4000 = .199 (HF)
.199 x $1250K = $248.8K (HV)
$248.8K / 795 = $313.0 / sqft (P/SQFToH)
1.0 - .199 = .801 (LF)
.801 x $1250K = $1001.2K (LV)
$1001.2K / 4000 = $250.3 / sqft (P/SQFToL)
313.0 + 250.3 = 563.3 (HPM) House Price Multiplier
1034 Marco Pl., Venice 90291
2+1, 917 sqft, SOLD on 2/28/07 for $745K, 4280 sqft LOT
917 / 4280 = .216 (HF)
.216 x $745K = $193.7K (HV)
$193.7K / 917 = $211.2 / sqft (P/SQFToH)
1.0 - .216 = .784 (LF)
.784 x $745K = $584K (LV)
$584K / 4280 = $136.5 / sqft (P/SQFToL)
211.2 + 136.5 = 347.7 (HPM) House Price Multiplier
347.7 / 563.3 = .617 (RBX) Rabindex (-38.3%) in 2.5 months!
Any other observations about Venice out there?
Venice 90291 is showing weakness :
24 House Sales, Median Price of $976K (March 2007)
to
17 House Sales, Median Price of $912K (April 2007)
Total number of House and Condo sales dropped:
31 (March 2007) $790 / sqft
20(April 2007) $754 / sqft
In addition, the median sales price of house ($912K) is down -11% from last year.
639 Crestmoore Pl., Venice 90291
2+1, 888 sqft, SOLD on 6/9/06 for $1370K, 4200 sqft LOT
888 / 4200 = .211 (HF)
.211 x $1370K = $289.1K (HV)
$289.1K / 888 = $325.6 / sqft (P/SQFToH)
1.0 - .211 = .789 (LF)
.789 x $1370K = $852.9K (LV)
$852.9K / 4200 = $203.1 / sqft (P/SQFToL)
325.6 + 203.1 = 528.7 (HPM) House Price Multiplier
624 Crestmoore Pl., Venice 90291
2+1, 854 sqft, SOLD on 3/12/07 for $937.5K, 3659 sqft LOT
854 / 3659 = .233 (HF)
.233 x $937.5K = $218.4K (HV)
$218.4K / 854 = $255.8 / sqft (P/SQFToH)
1.0 - .233 = .767 (LF)
.767 x $937.5K = $719.1K (LV)
$719.1K / 3659 = $196.5 / sqft (P/SQFToL)
255.8 + 196.5 = 452.3 (HPM) House Price Multiplier
(HPM) 452.3 / 528.7 (HPM) = .855 (RBX) Rabindex (-14.5%)
in 6 months
Last month, according to Melissa Data, the number of sales and average selling prices were:
5/06 19 sales @ $1118K
5/07 24 sales @ $1141K
Sales +26.3%
Price +2.1%
According to the LA Times June 17th Homeland Sales Report, during the months of January - April 2007, Venice 90291 suffered the worst declines:
Dropped -27.9% in volume
# of sales (68 - 49)
and
Dropped -13.6% in $/sqft
($940 - $812)
Double whammy....
I have said all along that, Venice would be hit the hardest in a housing downturn. Perhaps now, it is beginning.
Any comments?
According to the LA Times Southland Home Prices (6/24/07):
Venice 90291
(SFRs)19 sales, $1007K median price, -2.3% (YoY)
(CONDOS) 2 sales, $740K median price, -6.9% (YoY)
October numbers for Venice 90291 from Melissa Data are in. Not Good...
$21,060K Total Sales Volume (2006)
$10,700K Total Sales Volume (2007)
-$10,360K (-49.2%)
Not good? I personally think it's great. LA's housing market has been extremely overinflated for a long time.
Market psychology has changed as well. Instead of housing being the super safe investment that always makes money and "OMG you have to buy now or be priced out forever" It has turned into a wait and see game. Nobody wants to buy an investment that doesn't make money, and people won't want to buy a house that has a good chance of losing money in the future. Again, nobody will be buying up the excess inventory, which leads to a continued decline in house prices.
Construction will continue to suffer due to the glut of houses, and homebuilders that could have weathered a 2 year downturn, will be unable to survive the lengthened decline.
Housing prices will not go up again until they are in line with historical, adjusted for inflation, averages. Houses need to be affordable with a 30 year fixed mortgage with a 10% down payment before they can go back up. And even when they start to go back up, they will most likely keep pace with inflation and wage increases. It will take a damn long time before we see housing values that match the peak.
If you bought a house thinking you 'could flip it' since this market is just 'money town' then you deserve it.
Looks as if even Venice fell into the FUNK during November, according to Melissa Data. Measuring year over year (YOY), Total Sales Volume dropped:
90291
$20,577K on 19 sales @ $1083K (2006)
$14,546K on 14 sales @ $1039K (2007)
-$6,031K (-29%)
Found this recent sale on Zillow today:
2026 Glyndon 90291
Built 1926, 2Br + 1 Ba, 1143 sqft, 5200 sqft lot
SOLD 02/15/08 for $855.5K ($748/sqft)
compared to:
2233 Glyndon 90291
Built 1920, 2Br + 1Ba, 1024 sqft, 5850 sqft lot
SOLD 9/21/07 for $950K ($928/sqft)
748/928 = .806 (-19.4)in less than 5 months.
Quick way to lose 100K...
Venice just got Walloped during March according to the latest Melissa Data:
(March 2007) 19 sales @ $1097K = $20.8M
(March 2008) 3 sales @ $1363K = $4.1M
4.1/20.8 = .197 (-80%) in Total Sales Volume !!!!
Almost dead in the water....
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