Tuesday, May 1, 2007

BEVERLYWOOD MELTDOWNS

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8 comments:

latesummer2008 said...

9426 Oakmore Rd. LA 90035
SFR 3+2, 2251 sq ft, SOLD 6/30/06, $1445K,7110 sq ft LOT

(HSQFT) 2251/7110 (LSQFT)= .32(HF) Housing Factor
.32(HF) x $1445K(SP)= $462.4K(HV) Housing Value
$462.4K(HV)/2251(HSQFT)= $205.4/sq ft (P/SQFToH)

1.0 - .32(HF) = .68(LF) Land Factor
.68(LF) x 1445K(SP) = $982.6K(LV) Land Value
$982.6K(LV)/7110(LSQFT) = $138.2(P/SQFToL)

205.4(P/SQFToH) + 138.2(P/SQFToL) = 343.6(HPM)House Price Multiplier


HPM for 9418 Oakmore Rd. LA, 90035
SFR 3+2, 2203 sq ft, SOLD 12/14/06, $1280K, 7160 sq ft LOT
2203/7160 = .31(HF)
.31 x $1280K = $396.8(HV)
$396.8K/2203 = $180.1/sq ft(P/SQFToH)

1.0 - .31 = .69(LF)
.69 x 1280K = $883.2K(LV)
$883.2K/7160 = $123.4/sq ft(P/SQFToL)

180.1 +123.4 = 303.5(HPM)

(HPM)303.5/343.6(HPM)= .883(RBX)Rabindex -11.7% in 5.5 months

Annualized :
12 months/5.5months = 2.18 x -11.7% = -25.5%

latesummer2008 said...

Ny other observations out there in Beverlywood ?

latesummer2008 said...
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latesummer2008 said...

According to Melissa Data, last month , the # of Sales and Average Selling Prices were:

5/06 22 sales @ $1304K

5/07 13 sales @ $769K


Sales -40.1%

Price -41.1%

latesummer2008 said...

According to the LA Times Southland Home Prices (6/24/07):

LA 90035

10 sales, $932K median price (YOY)

Perhaps, a better way to gague the market is by looking at $/sqft

April $616 / sqft
May $518 / sqft

518 / 616 = .841 (RBX) Rabindex -15.9%

latesummer2008 said...

Looks like November wasn't very kind to Beverlywood, according to Melissa Data. Measuring year over year (YOY), we see that the area dropped considerably in total sales volume (TSV).

90035

$15,642K on 18 sales @ $869K (2006)
$7,548K on 12 sales @ $629K (2007)
-$8,094K (-52%)

Over half........

latesummer2008 said...
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latesummer2008 said...

Found this sale on Zillow today:

9412 Kramerwood Pl. 90034
Built 1947, 3Br + 2Ba, 1418 sqft, 5764 sqft lot
SOLD 1/11/08 for $589K ($415/sqft)

comparing it to:

9436 Hargis 90034
Built 1948, 3Br + 2Ba, 1680 sqft, 6200 sqft lot
SOLD 10/17/07 fo $899K ($535/sqft)

415/535 = 77.5 (-22.5%) in less than 3 months..

Hargis is a slightly bigger house and bigger lot. But is it worth 50% more? (899/589 = 1.53)

Perhaps, we have rolled back pricing to early 2004 or even late 2003.