tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post255901703323328428..comments2023-10-17T03:56:37.638-07:00Comments on Westside RE Comparables: False Bottom in Real EstateAnonymoushttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02624092640232514548noreply@blogger.comBlogger67125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-12111427328607374832009-11-06T14:11:14.226-08:002009-11-06T14:11:14.226-08:00JBR said...
Case shiller went up (seasonally and ...JBR said... <br />Case shiller went up (seasonally and nonseasonally) again. How do we treat that here - do we just pretend that it didnt happen or something?"<br /><br />No, we understand that that's the headline number. Then we look at the numbers for individual cities and see that L.A. was *down* 12% from 2008.<br /><br />Sigh -- apparently you werent here for the beat down given to LS2009 about when prices are up in a YOY series. It was called "find the bottom" when prices are down on a YOY basis, yet 2nd derivative was declining. <br /><br />I can explain it again if you want, but you might want to just ask LS2009 as he probably doesnt want to be embarassed in public once again.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-18917714479815851452009-11-05T20:37:27.497-08:002009-11-05T20:37:27.497-08:00Thank you.
I guess that's the bottom line.Thank you.<br /><br />I guess that's the bottom line.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11435569312050573156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-4950935694247410012009-11-04T20:27:49.704-08:002009-11-04T20:27:49.704-08:00Robert,
Everyone is just really jealous of you. ...Robert, <br /><br />Everyone is just really jealous of you. You can buy, and they can't for whatever reasons. Enjoy ur house with your family.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-40129442083912687772009-11-04T19:28:14.456-08:002009-11-04T19:28:14.456-08:00i already cited where the govt statistic of 65% em...i already cited where the govt statistic of 65% employment was. God, Robert, you are a dumbassblah blah blahnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-88071653236088759882009-11-04T16:57:27.832-08:002009-11-04T16:57:27.832-08:00Hey, who cares if Robert bought a house he's h...Hey, who cares if Robert bought a house he's happy with? (Although if you ask me, he sounds a little angry.)<br /><br />We've got a lot of substantive reasons to believe we're in for further decline. Doesn't mean you can't ignore them, or find a decent value anyway, or buy emotionally and ride it out. <br /><br />Did you notice how quickly he went from "In your heart you know this is the time to buy" to "I can afford that risk and have an emotional need to own a home here"? <br /><br />The second sentiment seems like the best reason to buy at the moment, minus the denouncement of others who aren't all in on your emotional risk. <br /><br />If I find the right value on the right house, I'll buy, too. But "my heart" says there aren't many sustainable prices on the Westside yet, and I really wouldn't mind the rates going up and the prices down first. <br /><br />Enjoy your house, Robert. A little downside isn't the end of the world.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-75571105089743641572009-11-04T13:56:32.841-08:002009-11-04T13:56:32.841-08:00Robert,
You can't seem to grasp simple macro ...Robert,<br /><br />You can't seem to grasp simple macro economics concepts or simple statical reasoning. This is a good indication of the types of people that are buying now! I, for one, am glad you bought, there will be less competition when the nice houses comes on the market.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-8204224517401162912009-11-04T13:47:53.699-08:002009-11-04T13:47:53.699-08:00Again, I am not saying now is the time to buy. I...Again, I am not saying now is the time to buy. In fact now is probably not the time to buy - 99% of sellers are delusional<br /><br />That being said, go to http://www.45724th.com/ and see the very nice house that closed at 2.3 million <br /><br />There is a lot of reason to discuss nice houses for sale in that neighborhood since there are likely to be more of them selling cheap in next few mosAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-89194784074714636352009-11-04T13:46:08.620-08:002009-11-04T13:46:08.620-08:00I agree - today's prices are not sane and not ...I agree - today's prices are not sane and not sustainable<br /><br />That being said, I was fortunate to have sold a few of my properties before the market started to crash in 2006. I am not planning to buy a house in the neighborhood between 15th and 26th North of Montana. <br /><br />You may not be aware of this, but a really very nice five bedroom house sold in this neighborhood for 2.3 million recently. Down from 3.3 million at the peak. So prices have already come down pretty hard. <br /><br />I am looking to buy something with four or five bedrooms for around 2.3 million - I want to know what the homes are that have notices of default filed against them in that neighborhood. Perhaps I will contact the banks involved and see if they are interested in a short sale - <br /><br />if anyone else is carefully following that neighborhood - from 15th to 26th North of Montana, let's start discussing specific houses <br /><br />thanksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-15655006508928021692009-11-04T13:30:06.152-08:002009-11-04T13:30:06.152-08:00FHA loans have replaced the toxic mortgages given ...FHA loans have replaced the toxic mortgages given out during the bubble years. Without these, prices would come crashing down. Anyone who reads financial news or even just CNN knows that the FHA default rate has gone through the roof. Unlike a business, the FHA is legally bound to have enough reserve to cover their losses. how long do you think it will be before they tighten their lending guidelines? The FHA was established to provide housing assistance for low income families, but is currently being used to prop up high prices on the westside. For example, and there are many, WestEndLiving, a newly built condo complex in the Marina Del Rey Art Distric is offering FHA loans on their penthouse series priced right at the conforming limit. My wife and I make 200k a year and have 200k in savings, but no matter how we work the number $600k mortgage is beyond us. So we will just wait and buy from the bank after they foreclose on the fools that jumped in at these prices.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-68557637026620109202009-11-04T10:34:38.653-08:002009-11-04T10:34:38.653-08:00Mr Anonymous....on Friday morning at 8:30 EST the ...Mr Anonymous....on Friday morning at 8:30 EST the Labor Dept will issue its monthly jobs report for October. There are 2 main numbers to look at: one of the unemployment rate which we agree is about 10%. The other rate, which you misunderstand, is the under-employed rate which currently is about 16-17%" Your number of 65 % not working is just plain silly...did you hear this from Glenn Beck?<br /> Since you a renter and not in the market to buy, I suggest you go out one Sunday to the better properties be they condos or houses on the west side and see the action, speak to the realtors and then do further work on your own to see how many fine homes have been sold with multiple offers. Pontificating from your living room, while easy, will not answer these questions.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11435569312050573156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-45986186124974087912009-11-04T09:49:00.348-08:002009-11-04T09:49:00.348-08:00Once the government money runs out prices will cor...Once the government money runs out prices will correct back to normal ratios. Annon 7:41 has it correct when asking what has happend to make prices change since 1999. The answer is only insane loans and the only justifiable answer would be a massively increased median income level. The only question is how long will it take. I'm unfortunatley thinking slow bleed...Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08866226658077921859noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-8330620552693981512009-11-04T08:11:02.535-08:002009-11-04T08:11:02.535-08:00"To the writer who wrote that in February tha..."To the writer who wrote that in February that only 65 % of Americans were employed, was that survey counting toddlers?"<br /><br />Robert, read my post again. Its aged 16 to 65. Since you obviously don't know what "Unemploymnet" means in the government numbers, i will explain:<br /><br />The Unemploymnet Rate is those filing for unemployment claims. If you are out of work, and your unemployment insurance runs out, you are no longer "unemployed". (yes, i think its dumb too, but you gotta know what the number is)<br /><br />If your benefits run out, or were part-time and dont qualify, or if you work as an under-the-table paid laborer, and you arent working, you are OUT OF THE LABOR FORCE AND DONT QUALIFY AS "UNEMPLOYED". <br /><br />(Even worse, if you have a new job that pays half, or 25% of your current income, because thats all you can get in a bad labor market, you are EMPLOYED.)<br /><br />Thats the difference between 65% employment and 10% unemployment. 25% of US people aged 16-65 are not being measure in the work force. So, again, knowing what you are talking about when you post a comment is always helpful.blahblahblahhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16185021934502404568noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-17955733838560970682009-11-04T07:41:16.911-08:002009-11-04T07:41:16.911-08:00Robert -- Happy high-end renter here, with a quick...Robert -- Happy high-end renter here, with a quick note for you: Just because housing is down from "impossibly crazily disgustingly high" to just plain old "way out of whack high" does not mean that a "dramatic" price drop has happened. <br /><br />The question you need(ed) to answer (because you are a buyer) is: Why is this house "worth more" than it was in 1999 or 2001?<br /><br />There is no good answer, and for that reason, you will lose as the market corrects itself. The bubble that is being re-inflated on sub $1.2mm properties is temporary. If you are buying above $1.6mm, there is a way to go on the way down. Sorry, bud.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-88850344904061535172009-11-03T20:53:38.767-08:002009-11-03T20:53:38.767-08:00To all the anonymous here, real estate is not a st...To all the anonymous here, real estate is not a stock with an exact price. Even if the housing prices begin going up, though naysayers will never admit that possibility, you will never know it until months later.<br /> IBM or Exxon quotes or the Dow Jones averages are to the minute, or mili-second. Prices of homes in the "westsidemeltdown" inconveniently do not work that way. <br /> To the contributor above who does not believe that prices have NOT pulled back in the past 3 years, you are beyond help. There is nothing wrong with renting or living with your folks my friend.<br /> To the writer who wrote that in February that only 65 % of Americans were employed, was that survey counting toddlers? I suggest you wait until Friday morning for the announcement of last months unemployment statistics. 10% or so is terrible, but it has little to do with multi-million homes in the area under discussion.Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11435569312050573156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-87390385843944944852009-11-03T16:37:20.171-08:002009-11-03T16:37:20.171-08:00"I bought because the prices declined dramati..."I bought because the prices declined dramatically, the rates are low and I found a home I loved."<br /><br />Hey, Robert: Two out of three ain't bad -- Where exactly were the DRAMATIC price drops on the Westside? You have to be in the below $1,000,000 market to see big drops, and even then only for fixer and awkwardly located properties. There is more to come on the downside, and you will enjoy feeling it. If you stay put for 20 years or so I am sure you will be fine, but THAT is a big IF. Best of luck to you, but I am betting on 2010 or 2011 for top quality properties (in PRIME - aka $1.5-$3mm areas) to make the move down closer to reality.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-56140845901924808702009-11-03T15:04:06.101-08:002009-11-03T15:04:06.101-08:00Just judging by the amount of unemployed or idle r...Just judging by the amount of unemployed or idle real estate agents who have nothing better to do than to make anonymous posts about how the West Side Real estate marked has "bottomed out", "hit the sweet spot", "really is different", just takes a "doctor married to a lawyer" with a big inheritance in order to afford a starter home next to the projects, I would estimate that Westside housing prices have a lot further to go down. When you start looking at things like "data" then you really start to worry.<br /><br />I think it is unfortunate that there is so much unemployment going on, but can't help but think your time could be used more productively.<br /><br />I think LateSummer 2009 was an OK guess, just a guess, no one know how this is going to play out. Maybe they'll start graduating 5,000,000 doctors a year from now on who will all want to live in the West side of LA and prices won't fall.Crash Burnnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-29500231545037186172009-11-03T14:23:01.676-08:002009-11-03T14:23:01.676-08:00Housing as a hedge against inflation... That does ...Housing as a hedge against inflation... That does make sense... Especially if we go into hyper- inflation... I still think inflation is 3 years away... So ill be waiting til this spring/ summer to start seriously house hunting ... Another 10% slow season haircut to house prices is definite before a slow rise.... Then explosion with inflation.. But then again... We will all have bigger problems.. But atleast we will have a large assetAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-963298188954889572009-11-03T12:38:46.639-08:002009-11-03T12:38:46.639-08:00"Interest rates in 2003 were 5%. In 2007, 6.5..."Interest rates in 2003 were 5%. In 2007, 6.5%. In those four years prices increased dramatically."<br /><br />lololol And everyone was getting an option ARM with an ultra-low teaser rate...and this caused the greatest financial crash post WWII<br /><br /><br />Everyone, not me. These rates are 30 year fixed with no points. It kinda debunks the myth that prices go down when interest rates go up and vice versa. Remember, when interest rates go up so does inflation, which is reflected in home prices. Even in the seventies home prices appreciated 10% after inflation as interest rates went from 7% to 15%. Many people back then bought in cash so their cash wasn't worthless 12 months later. Historically, real estate is a hedge against inflation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-79431277382900853622009-11-03T11:01:53.699-08:002009-11-03T11:01:53.699-08:00"Interest rates in 2003 were 5%. In 2007, 6.5..."Interest rates in 2003 were 5%. In 2007, 6.5%. In those four years prices increased dramatically."<br /><br />lololol And everyone was getting an option ARM with an ultra-low teaser rate...and this caused the greatest financial crash post WWII<br /><br />GOOD EXAMPLE!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-4013981053941660682009-11-03T10:19:09.099-08:002009-11-03T10:19:09.099-08:00Interest rates in 2003 were 5%. In 2007, 6.5%. I...Interest rates in 2003 were 5%. In 2007, 6.5%. In those four years prices increased dramatically. Currently, interest rates are 5% while prices have plummeted from 2007. I just refinanced my house at 4.5%. Now is the time to buy or refi.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-71967982495211248362009-11-03T09:05:21.610-08:002009-11-03T09:05:21.610-08:00Robert,
"90% of the population in the USA is...Robert,<br /><br />"90% of the population in the USA is working"?????<br /><br />According to the latest US Employment data, published 2/19/09, and compiled approximately 9 months prior, WELL BEFORE the Unemployment spike, less than 65% of the US population aged 16-65 is currently working.<br /><br />If you are going to even remotely earn any credibility, get your numbers right. You DO NOT subtract the unemployment rate from 100% and get the number of employed.<br /><br />Also, although in the long term, prices have gone up for real estate, in periods of increasing inflation home prices have declined. These cycles are quite long, anywhere from 5 to 15 years.<br /><br />Again, have your info straight. <br /><br />I personally am waiting for more declines. I am, however, shopping now. If i find something i like at a good price (not a crazy vulture price, just a good price)i will buy it. There are other factors besides price (family, schools, lifestyle, etc). I will not, however be deluded, or try to delude others as to my motivation. If i buy tomorrow, i will fully expect another 10-15% decline. If the price doubles in 12 months, i will be wrong, but happy.Blah balh blahnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-26273451160778894512009-11-02T18:39:22.385-08:002009-11-02T18:39:22.385-08:00Robert is a real buyer....deal closes in about a m...Robert is a real buyer....deal closes in about a month. I will return to this site the day after closing and tell you the address and you can look up the price somewhere on the web. I am not a broker---just a buyer who moved here recently from another state. If there is an earthquake, i have earthquake insurance. Don't you?<br /> Interest rates are already rising as I wrote. <br /> For the anonymous person who doubts that prices can go up as interest rates go up....give us all a break.<br /> Are you saying that prices never went up over the 64 years since World War II. interest rates were at low of about 4.75% in the late 1940's to 18% in the early 1980's and everyplace in between. your typical westside house at the same time I would guess rose from 25,000 to 2 or 3 million in some areas..all in a generally rising interest rate environment. If someone told you that rates would be around 5%, would it not normally be intuitive that that would be The Buying Opportunity of a lifetime. Someone responded that the price declines have another 10% to go. Who can time such a large purchase so perfectly. The price of housing in general might be down 10%, but we are not buying in large developments where inventory is ever present. I bought because the prices declined dramatically, the rates are low and I found a home I loved. <br /> Now the rates are very low and prices are as low as they have been in many years, and the anonymous writers are scared to death to buy but they surely can demean someone who can be bullish and frespond to the readers of a site called "westsidemeltdown."<br /> mr latesummer....your blog is about yesterday's newspaper. think about a blog called...."realestate iscomingbackslowlybutcomingback.com"Roberthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11435569312050573156noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-48820259782881939652009-11-02T16:34:02.766-08:002009-11-02T16:34:02.766-08:00I've given up on the idea of a home on the WES...I've given up on the idea of a home on the WESTSIDE... Mainly because I don't want to live in a 900 sq foot shack.<br /><br /> I'm 29 and my finance and I make combined just under $150K... We both are well-educated.. (her even more than me). I'm a fairly well-paid editor in the entertaiment industry and she works in insurance and is currently underpaid for her skill level, but the job market is horrid at the moment so she's stuck a bit. We both have our highest earning years ahead of us... But we know we want to have kids in the next 2-3 years. <br /><br />We both want to buy soon.. But our list of wants are pretty high. We want a 3bed/2bath around 1800+ sq feet...If we live in the valley a pool is on our must-have list.. along with a decent yard for BBQing ect. Oh and a good school district is a must too... All of this we want for under $500K.. Ideally closer to $400K... I think that's reasonable. It's not like we want a Mansion.<br /><br />So our list has been Woodland Hills, westside of Granada Hills (westside near Northridge Granada Hills High), even considering Simi Valley.<br /><br />Westside just seems over-rated for how over-priced it is...Matthewnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-41087210938303599322009-11-02T16:21:48.151-08:002009-11-02T16:21:48.151-08:00Robert is a troll. Where is this mythical house yo...Robert is a troll. Where is this mythical house you just bought? Who's the lender?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4846814498283585105.post-54877134499556102009-11-02T16:08:29.797-08:002009-11-02T16:08:29.797-08:00What was the dramatic change that occurred that ho...What was the dramatic change that occurred that home prices in So Cal shot up so much in the late 90s-early 2000s? <br /><br />Wasn't the weather just as nice in the 1970s and 1980s in So Cal?<br /><br /> What's the deal? <br /><br />Also if we have a "2012" style earthquake out here... Good luck selling your home after that mess...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com