What's The Matter With Malibu ??
Beloved Malibu has consistently been one of the worst performers since our downturn began in 2007. Last month's (October 2011) Dataquick numbers are horrendous. With the global economy in a serious state of flux, it seems almost nobody wants to touch the high end right now. Let's take look at the numbers YOY for Malibu in (2007), and see how far we have declined to this year's October (2011) Dataquick Report. Keep in mind the declines are measured against the preceding years (2007 vs 2006) and (2011 vs 2010). Perhaps the most significant is the price being paid per sqft, $777/sqft vs $429/sqft (-44.8%). Big money is not being spent in Malibu like it used to.
Malibu 90265 (2007)
SFRs 14 sales, $1,595,000 median, (-34.9%), $777/sqft
CONDOs 6 sales, $1,125,000 median (-2.2%)
Malibu 90265 (2011)
SFRs 11 sales, $738,000 median, (-79.5%), $429/sqft
CONDOs 5 sales, $396,000 median (-35.2%)
Just in time for Thanksgiving, here are a few turkeys:
28304 Rey De Copas Ln
2+3, 1306 sqft
YB 1974, CONDO
SOLD on 11/22/11 for $365,625
26665 Seagull Way Unit A212
2+1.5, 953 sqft
YB 1973, CONDO
SOLD on 11/3/11 for $510,000
27777 Winding Way
Raw Land, 3.79 Acres
Malibu Riviera
SOLD on 11/7/11 for $675,000
31555 Pacific Coast Highway
Raw Land, 7.33 Acres
North of Zuma
SOLD on 3/29/04 for $850,000
SOLD on 10/28/11 for $570,000 (-33.0%)
18277 Wakecrest Drive
3+2, 2027 sqft
YB 1962, 6800 sqft Lot
SOLD on 12/26/03 for $1,095,000
SOLD on 10,26/11 for $1,050,000 (-4.1%)
Short Sale
Let's hear from Malibu on these and other sales in 90265.
Just In:
35560 Las Flores Cyn Rd.
2+2, 1488 sqft
YB 1976, 2.6 Acres
Ocean and Canyon Views
SOLD on 6/29/07 for $1,753,000
SOLD on 11/23/11 for $795,000 (-54.7%) !!!!!
These are the types of discounts off the peak during Summer of 2007 where it makes sense to seriously consider buying. Finally, we are just beginning to see some sane pricing. I have said all along, that 50% - 60% off of peak pricing will clear the inventory. Happy Thanksgiving to someone who bought this one!
Posts
43 comments:
Really nice to see malibu prices down 28304 Rey De Copas Ln indicates malibu prices are at $280 a square foot right now.
May i ask , how good are the primary schools that i get by buying in malibu at 280 a square foot?
Interesting figurues. People with money are generally smart about what they spend on real estate. If prices are down like this in Malibu, it's probably a good bet that people know to stay away from the market.
You show compelling evidence that parts of malibu are now down 50%
Thanks for this -
Like many people here I work in Santa Monica and as such need to buy in Santa monica in order to have a reasonable commute
so i am waiting for Santa Monica to come down as hard as Malibu
If I buy outside Santa Monica my commute will take time away from my family
So yes keep showing us examples of safe upscale neighborhoods down 50% - I know it will take more time for this kind of pricing hit to roll in to Santa Monica
Thanks Latesummer. Good to know my patience is paying off! It seems the market is falling two ways. From the lower end to the upper end, and from outlying areas to the westside. It's just like watching dominoes fall.
Latesummer, I agree.
You were right there in 2006 telling people not to buy.
The realtors told people to ignore you, and the people who ignored you and listened to the realtors have been destroyed - utterly.
Malibu has been seriously overrated for years!
I wouldn't give $ 5 for the ' cactus and Coyote' portion of Malibu,the overrated area east of PCH. It's all built on sloped, unstable fire prone hillsides that offer no walkability or easy commute to the ONE (red flag) main road...the notorious PCH.
Only area really worth the Malibu prices are the Colony and Malibu shopping mart adj.
Yes Malibu is down big. Also down big is Palisades Highlands
Check out 17023 Avenida De Santa Ynez- true livable four bedroom house for only 1.1 million
Anyone know how good the public schools are that I get to send my kids to if I buy in Palisades highlands
17023 Avenida De Santa Ynez 1.1 million vs the exact same house, same size house same size lot 2.3 million in the franklin 90402
Yes yes i know that Franklin 90402 is a more convenient location. almost everyone's job is closer to their house if their house is in Franklin vs in Palisades
However put aside the location
I am saving half off on the house so my question is - how is the primary school and middle school in the palisades highlands vs the ones you get in franklin 90402?
I believe Palisades Highlands would be Palisades Elementary, which is quite good, and Paul Revere Middle School, which is acceptable to some and not to others. Neither is as good as Franklin and Lincoln in Santa Monica, although Palisades Elementary is probably pretty good, especially if you can supplement it with extra activities, special interest classes, etc. You'd be saving quite a bit of money, so it might be worth it.
Elementary school is not the problem on the westside...its the middle and high schools that are the problems....
"especially if you can supplement it with extra activities, special interest classes"
tutors are required for any public school. 90% of public school teachers are the C- students who couldn't do anything, and those who can't, teach. Right latesummer?
I have heard mixed things about Paul Revere.
That surprised me I always thought Paul Revere drew from the nice neighborhoods of Brentwood and the Palisades
are there any not so nice neighborhoods that feed in to Paul Revere ?
they bus LAUSD kids into Paul Revere.
Hmm.. I did not know that Paul Revere had kids who weren't from the Palisades or Brentwood...
I guess that the Palisades Highlands aren't as much of a bargain as I thought.
I know that the Palos Verdes Peninsula has great schools all the way through high school graduation - but boy what a commute I would have if I live there
And Manhattan Beach has great schools all the way through high school - but it is very costly there
I guess there really are no undiscovered bargains if I want to send my kids to public school
West Valley has some good schools, but good luck with the commute. Might as well get an apartment in town, if you have to drive every day.
"I guess that the Palisades Highlands aren't as much of a bargain as I thought."
What is the commute time from the Highlands to SM? 30 minutes? I'd rather live in the Las Virgenes district.
My sense is that the commute from the Highlands to SM is 30 minutes and the commute from the Las Virgenes district is about 55 minutes.
So big difference there
There are no really good public middle schools within easy commute of Santa Monica. You are talking about living either in Manhattan Beach, San Marino, or Calabasas in order to get a really good public middle school. None of those three places are at all convenient to Santa Monica
Don't mistake the quality of the schools for the quality of the students. A cursory review of the school accountability report cards would show you that similar demographic groups score as well in Santa Monica middle schools as they do in Las Virgenes. Manhattan Beach and San Marino middle schools have remarkable test scores, though not necessarily a culture that everyone wants.
A school's reputation is very important to college admissions offices. And some schools have much better reputations than others.
"My sense is that the commute from the Highlands to SM is 30 minutes and the commute from the Las Virgenes district is about 55 minutes.
So big difference there"
It's all about tradeoffs. Some parents choose to stay on the westside, and some do what's best for their kids.
It's official, folks. Case Schiller, the most respected measure of the real estate market, announced today that home prices in the top 20 U.S. cities have fallen below the 2009 low. Where do we go from here? Down or up?
It depends on where. Westside is going down, just like Malibu.
SM is up 10% since 2009.
Is it true that SM is up 10% since 2009? It doesn't seem like it from the prices I've seen around, but I haven't researched it.
October 2011 data for zip code 90402
Santa Monica (90402) 8 sales
$2,725,000-Price median for SFR
Price chg from Oct 2010-39.7%
Price per sq. ft-$971
90405 was up 17%....
Any thoughts?
I know the number of sales are low. Not a lot on the market and things that are decently priced are snapped up quickly.
greengroovymom,
One more comment like that and you will be banned!
LA Times, 11/30/11: New foreclosure actions and weak demand probably will drive prices down an additional 5% to 10%, and perhaps more, if the economy slips into a double-dip recession, economists Patrick Newport and Michelle Valverde wrote in a research note Tuesday.
Real estate agents and other real estate professionals do not want to hear that, but that's what they said.
Never heard of either of them, wonder what they were saying in 2006.
They are economists at IHS Global Insight.
Anon. 11:56, do you believe now is a good time to buy a house in Los Angeles? I don't.
Please ignore anyone who is attacking others on this board. They won't even register their names, so they can spew nonsense without taking any backlash. Just stupid cowards. Ignore them and I will continue to delete them as much as I can. Don't even give them the time of day.
You have to ask yourself, why are they here? Trolls or trying to justify their purchases, I would imagine.
"You have to ask yourself, why are they here? Trolls or trying to justify their purchases, I would imagine."
Justifying a purchase? No.
Truth is, I am a troll. No more no less. Just as I laughed at all the permabulls who in 2006 told us "westside has nowhere to go but up", I now laugh at all the permabears who continue to think that another -30% in price drops is just around the corner...
Very few blogs are left that continue to believe that doom is just around the corner. The vast majority of them wrapped it up in 2009 when it was evident that the downturn was pretty much over but the shoutin. This saddens me.
Fortunately, you are still here, acting as a repository for the delusional refugees from other blogs who are now silent. You continue to feed their delusions of crashing prices "just around the corner". As such, thank you for continuing to entertain me.
Ignore the trolls. They are probably realturds
can we have a new thread to discuss schools?
Most of us believe Latesummer when he tells us not to buy right now
So the issue is, what neighborhood should we rent in? What neighborhood has the best public high schools
Back to renting? In Santa Monica? With kids? Under 5K?Good luck with that...
A shadow inventory of 6.5 million homes in some stage of foreclosure; the average college graduate enters the workforce (if they can find a job) with over $25,000 in college debt; baby boomers are starting to retire and downsize; banks are making harder than ever to qualify for a loan; the state and federal government are going to have no choice but to suck money out of the economy by either cutting services or raising fees and taxes; over 23% of homeowners are underwater with their mortgage; the feds are seriously considering restricting the mortgage tax deduction by either lowering the current limit from $1.1 million or eliminating the deduction for second homes because they are both giveaways to the wealthy; at some point they will once again lower the jumbo loan ceiling to $629K or lower.
Am I leaving anything out?
If you want to buy a house now, go for it. I'm happy to wait on the sideline until the dust settles. This is no time to buy a house.
Greengroovymom
you are correct - forget santa monica
what i am asking is, why don't you list for us the best public high schools around the area - so that we can discuss where it makes sense for my family to rent
Santa Monica is sub optimal since the high school has sub optimal demographics. So tell us where the great high schools are
"Fortunately, you are still here, acting as a repository for the delusional refugees from other blogs who are now silent."
That pretty much sums it up for me as well. or as latesummer2005 would say, "here here"!!
Look, we all know that there are plenty of people who are desperate and hungry to own a house on the West Side who will never ever be able to. These are people who logically should throw in the towel and move to another city where they actually can afford to buy. No one wants to tell them the truth because it would be cruel to tell them the truth.
Look at it this way - there are plenty of children with IQ of 95 in middle school right now who dream of being doctors when they grow up. You have to be heartless to shatter their dreams by telling them that if you are born with an iq of 95 it doesn't matter how hard you work - you won't make it in to med school
Same thing - it would be heartless to tell the people with incomes that are too low to ever afford the west side theat they should pack it in.
Therefore, there is a whole subulture of people who want to hear others tell them that they will eventually be able to afford to buy.
Now, I happen to be a bear. I think prices are going to come down hard. But that doesn't change the fact that even after prices come down hard there will be plenty of people who want to buy on the west side that still won't be able to
What are you people talking about? I can afford to buy a home on the west side but why would I want to? It would be like throwing money away. I have a fantastic rental one mile from the beach in Santa Monica, my neighbors are quiet and respectful, the place is big and comfortable, I wouldn't want to be anywhere else.
When I talk to my friends who own on the west side and hear about how much equity they've lost in the last 5 years -- I can see it on their faces, they look worried. They're in deep and they can't ge out. Meanwhile I'm earning 5% on my money on bonds, I'll be ready to make a 20% down payment on a good house when the time is right in a year or two, and I'm sleeping very well.
Even though I could buy now, I'd be a fool to do it.
yes plenty of people who can afford to buy are choosing not to. Of course 8:03 is in that category
However the larger group are those that can't afford to buy now and will never be able to afford to buy. Those people need to accept their own limitations. acceptance.
Why is it a limitation not to be able to buy a house when a house will lose money? That doesn't make sense.
Can anyone give more info on Malibu high school
Post a Comment